Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion
As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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PeerJ Inc.
2015-09-01
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/1224.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797423945698246656 |
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| author | Tamsin E. Lee Simon A. Black Amina Fellous Nobuyuki Yamaguchi Francesco M. Angelici Hadi Al Hikmani J. Michael Reed Chris S. Elphick David L. Roberts |
| author_facet | Tamsin E. Lee Simon A. Black Amina Fellous Nobuyuki Yamaguchi Francesco M. Angelici Hadi Al Hikmani J. Michael Reed Chris S. Elphick David L. Roberts |
| author_sort | Tamsin E. Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:54:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e502f8e4d43f4abc8cbd67b9887786a1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T07:54:03Z |
| publishDate | 2015-09-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-e502f8e4d43f4abc8cbd67b9887786a12023-12-03T01:19:48ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592015-09-013e122410.7717/peerj.1224Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lionTamsin E. Lee0Simon A. Black1Amina Fellous2Nobuyuki Yamaguchi3Francesco M. Angelici4Hadi Al Hikmani5J. Michael Reed6Chris S. Elphick7David L. Roberts8Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, UKDurrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, UKAgence Nationale pour la Conservation de la Nature, Algiers, AlgeriaDepartment of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Qatar, Doha, QatarItalian Foundation of Vertebrate Zoology (FIZV), Rome, ItalyOffice for Conservation of the Environment, Diwan of Royal Court, Sultanate of OmanDepartment of Biology, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Conservation and Biodiversity, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USADurrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, UKAs species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.https://peerj.com/articles/1224.pdfData qualityCritically endangeredIUCN red listSighting recordPossibly extinctSighting uncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Tamsin E. Lee Simon A. Black Amina Fellous Nobuyuki Yamaguchi Francesco M. Angelici Hadi Al Hikmani J. Michael Reed Chris S. Elphick David L. Roberts Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion PeerJ Data quality Critically endangered IUCN red list Sighting record Possibly extinct Sighting uncertainty |
| title | Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion |
| title_full | Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion |
| title_fullStr | Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion |
| title_short | Assessing uncertainty in sighting records: an example of the Barbary lion |
| title_sort | assessing uncertainty in sighting records an example of the barbary lion |
| topic | Data quality Critically endangered IUCN red list Sighting record Possibly extinct Sighting uncertainty |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/1224.pdf |
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