Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1494 |
| _version_ | 1797511251421560832 |
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| author | Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre |
| author_facet | Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre |
| author_sort | Fernanda Casagrande |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:42:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c237 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:42:43Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-e5556ec60c97494e9c0d6e0d8bb9c2372023-11-22T22:25:13ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-11-011211149410.3390/atmos12111494Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 ModelsFernanda Casagrande0Francisco A. B. Neto1Ronald B. de Souza2Paulo Nobre3Earth System Numerical Modeling Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rod. Presidente Dutra km 40, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, BrazilEarth System Numerical Modeling Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rod. Presidente Dutra km 40, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, BrazilEarth System Numerical Modeling Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rod. Presidente Dutra km 40, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, BrazilEarth System Numerical Modeling Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rod. Presidente Dutra km 40, Cachoeira Paulista 12630-000, BrazilOne of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1494climate changeParis agreementArcticAntarcticapolar amplificationice-free |
| spellingShingle | Fernanda Casagrande Francisco A. B. Neto Ronald B. de Souza Paulo Nobre Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Atmosphere climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free |
| title | Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
| title_full | Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
| title_fullStr | Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
| title_short | Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models |
| title_sort | polar amplification and ice free conditions under 1 5 2 and 3 °c of global warming as simulated by cmip5 and cmip6 models |
| topic | climate change Paris agreement Arctic Antarctica polar amplification ice-free |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/11/1494 |
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