Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time
Wildland fire behavior models are often initiated using the detection information listed in incident reports. This information carries an unknown amount of uncertainty, though it is often the most readily available ignition data. To determine the extent to which the use of detection information affe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Fire |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/3/58 |
| _version_ | 1827660394538205184 |
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| author | Amy DeCastro Amanda Siems-Anderson Ebone Smith Jason C. Knievel Branko Kosović Barbara G. Brown Jennifer K. Balch |
| author_facet | Amy DeCastro Amanda Siems-Anderson Ebone Smith Jason C. Knievel Branko Kosović Barbara G. Brown Jennifer K. Balch |
| author_sort | Amy DeCastro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Wildland fire behavior models are often initiated using the detection information listed in incident reports. This information carries an unknown amount of uncertainty, though it is often the most readily available ignition data. To determine the extent to which the use of detection information affects wildland fire forecasts, this research examines the range of burned area values and propagation directions resulting from different initiation point locations and times. We examined the forecasts for ten Colorado 2018 wildland fire case studies, each initiated from a set of 17 different point locations, and three different starting times (a total of 520 case study simulations). The results show that the range of forecast burned area and propagation direction values is strongly affected by the location of the initiation location, and to a lesser degree by the time of initiation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T23:51:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e5583712ab0c40d68696d0b20acdf950 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-6255 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T23:51:09Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Fire |
| spelling | doaj.art-e5583712ab0c40d68696d0b20acdf9502023-11-23T16:35:31ZengMDPI AGFire2571-62552022-04-01535810.3390/fire5030058Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and TimeAmy DeCastro0Amanda Siems-Anderson1Ebone Smith2Jason C. Knievel3Branko Kosović4Barbara G. Brown5Jennifer K. Balch6National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USAVirginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80305, USAEarth Lab, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80303, USAWildland fire behavior models are often initiated using the detection information listed in incident reports. This information carries an unknown amount of uncertainty, though it is often the most readily available ignition data. To determine the extent to which the use of detection information affects wildland fire forecasts, this research examines the range of burned area values and propagation directions resulting from different initiation point locations and times. We examined the forecasts for ten Colorado 2018 wildland fire case studies, each initiated from a set of 17 different point locations, and three different starting times (a total of 520 case study simulations). The results show that the range of forecast burned area and propagation direction values is strongly affected by the location of the initiation location, and to a lesser degree by the time of initiation.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/3/58wildland fire detectionwildland fire behavior modelignition pointsensitivity study |
| spellingShingle | Amy DeCastro Amanda Siems-Anderson Ebone Smith Jason C. Knievel Branko Kosović Barbara G. Brown Jennifer K. Balch Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time Fire wildland fire detection wildland fire behavior model ignition point sensitivity study |
| title | Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time |
| title_full | Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time |
| title_fullStr | Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time |
| title_full_unstemmed | Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time |
| title_short | Weather Research and Forecasting—Fire Simulated Burned Area and Propagation Direction Sensitivity to Initiation Point Location and Time |
| title_sort | weather research and forecasting fire simulated burned area and propagation direction sensitivity to initiation point location and time |
| topic | wildland fire detection wildland fire behavior model ignition point sensitivity study |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/5/3/58 |
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