Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change
Forest management traditionally has been based on the expectation of a steady climate. In the face of a changing climate, management requires projections of changes in the distribution of the climatic niche of the major species and strategies for applying the projections. We prepared climatic habita...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/12/1780 |
| _version_ | 1797504592530898944 |
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| author | James J. Worrall Gerald E. Rehfeldt |
| author_facet | James J. Worrall Gerald E. Rehfeldt |
| author_sort | James J. Worrall |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Forest management traditionally has been based on the expectation of a steady climate. In the face of a changing climate, management requires projections of changes in the distribution of the climatic niche of the major species and strategies for applying the projections. We prepared climatic habitat models incorporating heatload as a topographic predictor for the 14 upland tree species of southwestern Colorado, USA, an area that has already seen substantial climate impacts. Models were trained with over 800,000 points of known presence and absence. Using 11 climate scenarios for the decade around 2060, we classified and mapped change for each species. Projected impacts are extensive. Except for the low-elevation woodland species, persistent habitat is rare. Most habitat is lost or threatened and is poorly compensated by emergent habitat. Three species may be locally extirpated. Nevertheless, strategies are described that can use the projections to apply management where it is likely to be most effective, to facilitate or assist migration, to favor species likely to be suited in the future, and to identify potential climate refugia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:06:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e57db4d1f66a48789232f141608e1832 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:06:45Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-e57db4d1f66a48789232f141608e18322023-11-23T08:22:17ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072021-12-011212178010.3390/f12121780Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest ChangeJames J. Worrall0Gerald E. Rehfeldt1U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Forest Health Protection, Gunnison, CO 81230, USAIndependent Researcher, 2424 D Street, Moscow, ID 83843, USAForest management traditionally has been based on the expectation of a steady climate. In the face of a changing climate, management requires projections of changes in the distribution of the climatic niche of the major species and strategies for applying the projections. We prepared climatic habitat models incorporating heatload as a topographic predictor for the 14 upland tree species of southwestern Colorado, USA, an area that has already seen substantial climate impacts. Models were trained with over 800,000 points of known presence and absence. Using 11 climate scenarios for the decade around 2060, we classified and mapped change for each species. Projected impacts are extensive. Except for the low-elevation woodland species, persistent habitat is rare. Most habitat is lost or threatened and is poorly compensated by emergent habitat. Three species may be locally extirpated. Nevertheless, strategies are described that can use the projections to apply management where it is likely to be most effective, to facilitate or assist migration, to favor species likely to be suited in the future, and to identify potential climate refugia.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/12/1780forest adaptationrandom forestsheatloadclimate refugiabristlecone |
| spellingShingle | James J. Worrall Gerald E. Rehfeldt Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change Forests forest adaptation random forests heatload climate refugia bristlecone |
| title | Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change |
| title_full | Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change |
| title_fullStr | Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change |
| title_short | Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change |
| title_sort | strategic application of topoclimatic niche models in managing forest change |
| topic | forest adaptation random forests heatload climate refugia bristlecone |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/12/1780 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jamesjworrall strategicapplicationoftopoclimaticnichemodelsinmanagingforestchange AT geralderehfeldt strategicapplicationoftopoclimaticnichemodelsinmanagingforestchange |