Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta
<p>The Mekong Delta is the most important food production area in Vietnam, but salinity intrusion during the dry season poses a serious threat to agricultural production and livelihoods. A seasonal forecast of salinity intrusion is required in order to mitigate the negative effects. This commu...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1609/2020/nhess-20-1609-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818060338859343872 |
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| author | H. Apel M. Khiem N. H. Quan T. Q. Toan |
| author_facet | H. Apel M. Khiem N. H. Quan T. Q. Toan |
| author_sort | H. Apel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The Mekong Delta is the most important food production
area in Vietnam, but salinity intrusion during the dry season poses a
serious threat to agricultural production and livelihoods. A seasonal
forecast of salinity intrusion is required in order to mitigate the negative
effects. This communication presents a statistical seasonal forecast model
based on logistic regression using either the ENSO34 index or streamflow as
a predictor. The model is able to reliably predict the salinity intrusion up to 9
months ahead (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores: <span class="inline-formula">>0.8</span>). The model can
thus be used operationally as a basis for timely adaptation and mitigation
planning.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T13:30:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e5a6b7fca5744e73bff0623dae364ef9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T13:30:50Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-e5a6b7fca5744e73bff0623dae364ef92022-12-22T01:47:00ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812020-06-01201609161610.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong DeltaH. Apel0M. Khiem1N. H. Quan2T. Q. Toan3Section Hydrology, GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, GermanyNational Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), Hanoi, VietnamCenter of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC), Vietnam National University – Ho Chi Minh City (VNU – HCM), Ho Chi Minh City, VietnamSouthern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam<p>The Mekong Delta is the most important food production area in Vietnam, but salinity intrusion during the dry season poses a serious threat to agricultural production and livelihoods. A seasonal forecast of salinity intrusion is required in order to mitigate the negative effects. This communication presents a statistical seasonal forecast model based on logistic regression using either the ENSO34 index or streamflow as a predictor. The model is able to reliably predict the salinity intrusion up to 9 months ahead (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores: <span class="inline-formula">>0.8</span>). The model can thus be used operationally as a basis for timely adaptation and mitigation planning.</p>https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1609/2020/nhess-20-1609-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | H. Apel M. Khiem N. H. Quan T. Q. Toan Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta |
| title_full | Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta |
| title_fullStr | Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta |
| title_full_unstemmed | Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta |
| title_short | Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta |
| title_sort | brief communication seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the mekong delta |
| url | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/20/1609/2020/nhess-20-1609-2020.pdf |
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