Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management
Although corn production is affected by several harmful insects, its most important pest in the southeastern region of Europe is the European corn borer (ECB), <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Chemical control of <i>O. nubilalis</i> remains the...
| প্রধান লেখক: | , , , , , , |
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| বিন্যাস: | প্রবন্ধ |
| ভাষা: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| মালা: | Agronomy |
| বিষয়গুলি: | |
| অনলাইন ব্যবহার করুন: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/13/6/1494 |
| _version_ | 1827739022648147968 |
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| author | Aleksandar Ivezić Gordan Mimić Branislav Trudić Dragana Blagojević Boris Kuzmanović Željko Kaitović Kristina Petrović |
| author_facet | Aleksandar Ivezić Gordan Mimić Branislav Trudić Dragana Blagojević Boris Kuzmanović Željko Kaitović Kristina Petrović |
| author_sort | Aleksandar Ivezić |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Although corn production is affected by several harmful insects, its most important pest in the southeastern region of Europe is the European corn borer (ECB), <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Chemical control of <i>O. nubilalis</i> remains the main strategy in conventional corn production. The key to successfully achieving a high efficiency of insecticides is determining the appropriate moment of application, including the exact time in the insect’s life cycle when it is most vulnerable. In this study, monitoring data on the flight dynamics of ECB adults from a seven-year period (2014–2020) were exploited for the development of a predictive model of adult numbers within the growing season. ECB monitoring was performed by using light traps at 15 different locations in the Vojvodina region (Serbia) during the specified time period. First, the calendar for Vojvodina was created based on the analytics of the collected monitoring data. Additionally, the calendar was converted to the probability of ECB occurrence during the growing season, specifying the time interval between the appearance of each generation of the pest. Second, using machine learning techniques, a phenological model was designed that included daily values of relevant meteorological features, such as cumulative degree-days, relative humidity, and precipitation. The calendar had a lower prediction error when compared to the phenological model, and it was tested as a supporting management tool for the ECB in 2021, with a root-mean-square error of the number of adults of 46.67. Such an approach could significantly reduce both the consumption of insecticides and the number of chemical treatments, respectively. Above all, this approach has broad potential in IPM and organic farming, and it is fully compatible with biological control methods. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:53:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e5a823c2e24745519714e85c068fc923 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:53:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-e5a823c2e24745519714e85c068fc9232023-11-18T08:54:02ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952023-05-01136149410.3390/agronomy13061494Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest ManagementAleksandar Ivezić0Gordan Mimić1Branislav Trudić2Dragana Blagojević3Boris Kuzmanović4Željko Kaitović5Kristina Petrović6BioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, Dr Zorana Đinđića 1, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaBioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, Dr Zorana Đinđića 1, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaForest Biodiversity and Restoration Team, Forestry Division, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, ItalyBioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, Dr Zorana Đinđića 1, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 8, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaMaize Research Institute “Zemun Polje”, Slobodana Bajića 1, 11185 Beograd, SerbiaBioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, Dr Zorana Đinđića 1, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaAlthough corn production is affected by several harmful insects, its most important pest in the southeastern region of Europe is the European corn borer (ECB), <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Chemical control of <i>O. nubilalis</i> remains the main strategy in conventional corn production. The key to successfully achieving a high efficiency of insecticides is determining the appropriate moment of application, including the exact time in the insect’s life cycle when it is most vulnerable. In this study, monitoring data on the flight dynamics of ECB adults from a seven-year period (2014–2020) were exploited for the development of a predictive model of adult numbers within the growing season. ECB monitoring was performed by using light traps at 15 different locations in the Vojvodina region (Serbia) during the specified time period. First, the calendar for Vojvodina was created based on the analytics of the collected monitoring data. Additionally, the calendar was converted to the probability of ECB occurrence during the growing season, specifying the time interval between the appearance of each generation of the pest. Second, using machine learning techniques, a phenological model was designed that included daily values of relevant meteorological features, such as cumulative degree-days, relative humidity, and precipitation. The calendar had a lower prediction error when compared to the phenological model, and it was tested as a supporting management tool for the ECB in 2021, with a root-mean-square error of the number of adults of 46.67. Such an approach could significantly reduce both the consumption of insecticides and the number of chemical treatments, respectively. Above all, this approach has broad potential in IPM and organic farming, and it is fully compatible with biological control methods.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/13/6/1494<i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i>insect phenologycornpredictive modelweather data |
| spellingShingle | Aleksandar Ivezić Gordan Mimić Branislav Trudić Dragana Blagojević Boris Kuzmanović Željko Kaitović Kristina Petrović Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management Agronomy <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> insect phenology corn predictive model weather data |
| title | Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management |
| title_full | Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management |
| title_fullStr | Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management |
| title_short | Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management |
| title_sort | development of a predictive model of the flight dynamics of the european corn borer i ostrinia nubilalis i hubner 1796 lepidoptera pyralidae in the vojvodina region serbia implications for integrated pest management |
| topic | <i>Ostrinia nubilalis</i> insect phenology corn predictive model weather data |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/13/6/1494 |
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