Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data
The potential use of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) clear air products in forecasts of convective rain over Germany in summer is examined. The three quantities Lifted Index (LI), Layer Precipitable Water (LPWML) of the Middle Layer and the trend of the Lifted Index (dLI/dt) are combined in a heuri...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Borntraeger
2007-10-01
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| Series: | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0207 |
| _version_ | 1797332606016028672 |
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| author | Jochen Wagner Ralf Becker |
| author_facet | Jochen Wagner Ralf Becker |
| author_sort | Jochen Wagner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The potential use of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) clear air products in forecasts of convective rain over Germany in summer is examined. The three quantities Lifted Index (LI), Layer Precipitable Water (LPWML) of the Middle Layer and the trend of the Lifted Index (dLI/dt) are combined in a heuristic approach to gain a probabilistic forecast of convective rain with a lead time of three to six hours. Data from 33 days with a typical convective weather situation in summer 2005 and summer 2006 were used to derive the data pool necessary for the probabilistic forecast. The input parameter LI, LPWML and dLI/dt were divided into 5, 4 and 5 classes, respectively. This leads to 100 possible combinations of the input parameters. For each set of input parameter, the information about rain three to six hours later is assigned. DWD radar data are used to detect the rain pattern three to six hours later. For typical summer convective days in Germany, a valuable probability forecast of convective rain is calculated for cloud-free areas. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T07:51:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e5bdd6a33dbd4a338111ef339a99a326 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0941-2948 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T07:51:20Z |
| publishDate | 2007-10-01 |
| publisher | Borntraeger |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| spelling | doaj.art-e5bdd6a33dbd4a338111ef339a99a3262024-02-02T14:47:12ZengBorntraegerMeteorologische Zeitschrift0941-29482007-10-0116556557010.1127/0941-2948/2007/020756046Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite dataJochen WagnerRalf BeckerThe potential use of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) clear air products in forecasts of convective rain over Germany in summer is examined. The three quantities Lifted Index (LI), Layer Precipitable Water (LPWML) of the Middle Layer and the trend of the Lifted Index (dLI/dt) are combined in a heuristic approach to gain a probabilistic forecast of convective rain with a lead time of three to six hours. Data from 33 days with a typical convective weather situation in summer 2005 and summer 2006 were used to derive the data pool necessary for the probabilistic forecast. The input parameter LI, LPWML and dLI/dt were divided into 5, 4 and 5 classes, respectively. This leads to 100 possible combinations of the input parameters. For each set of input parameter, the information about rain three to six hours later is assigned. DWD radar data are used to detect the rain pattern three to six hours later. For typical summer convective days in Germany, a valuable probability forecast of convective rain is calculated for cloud-free areas.http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0207 |
| spellingShingle | Jochen Wagner Ralf Becker Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data Meteorologische Zeitschrift |
| title | Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data |
| title_full | Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data |
| title_fullStr | Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data |
| title_short | Short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data |
| title_sort | short range forecast of convective rain using satellite data |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2007/0207 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jochenwagner shortrangeforecastofconvectiverainusingsatellitedata AT ralfbecker shortrangeforecastofconvectiverainusingsatellitedata |