The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China
The intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation s...
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/11/2563 |
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| author | Jiao Yang Xudong Guo Ting Zhang Qing Wang Xingxing Zhang Jin Yang Shengjie Lai Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang |
| author_facet | Jiao Yang Xudong Guo Ting Zhang Qing Wang Xingxing Zhang Jin Yang Shengjie Lai Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang |
| author_sort | Jiao Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation size on influenza activity. We used 6-year weekly provincial-level surveillance data of influenza-like disease incidence (ILI) and viral activity in northern China. We derived the transmission potential of influenza for each epidemic season using the susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed–susceptible (SEIRS) model and estimated the transmissibility in the peak period via the instantaneous reproduction number (<i>R<sub>t</sub></i>). Public transport was found to explain approximately 28% of the variance in the seasonal transmission potential. Urbanization and public transportation size explained approximately 10% and 21% of the variance in maximum <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> in the peak period, respectively. For the mean <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> during the peak period, urbanization and public transportation accounted for 9% and 16% of the variance in <i>R<sub>t</sub></i>, respectively. Our results indicated that the differences in the intensity of influenza epidemics among the northern provinces of China were partially driven by urbanization and public transport size. These findings are beneficial for predicting influenza intensity and developing preparedness strategies for the early stages of epidemics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:56:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e6163cd45b4746449290ac1603eee3e4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:56:40Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj.art-e6163cd45b4746449290ac1603eee3e42023-11-24T10:19:16ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152022-11-011411256310.3390/v14112563The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern ChinaJiao Yang0Xudong Guo1Ting Zhang2Qing Wang3Xingxing Zhang4Jin Yang5Shengjie Lai6Luzhao Feng7Weizhong Yang8School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaDepartment of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaWorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton SO171BJ, UKSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaSchool of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Science (CAMS)/Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing 100730, ChinaThe intensity of influenza epidemics varies significantly from year to year among regions with similar climatic conditions and populations. However, the underlying mechanisms of the temporal and spatial variations remain unclear. We investigated the impact of urbanization and public transportation size on influenza activity. We used 6-year weekly provincial-level surveillance data of influenza-like disease incidence (ILI) and viral activity in northern China. We derived the transmission potential of influenza for each epidemic season using the susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed–susceptible (SEIRS) model and estimated the transmissibility in the peak period via the instantaneous reproduction number (<i>R<sub>t</sub></i>). Public transport was found to explain approximately 28% of the variance in the seasonal transmission potential. Urbanization and public transportation size explained approximately 10% and 21% of the variance in maximum <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> in the peak period, respectively. For the mean <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> during the peak period, urbanization and public transportation accounted for 9% and 16% of the variance in <i>R<sub>t</sub></i>, respectively. Our results indicated that the differences in the intensity of influenza epidemics among the northern provinces of China were partially driven by urbanization and public transport size. These findings are beneficial for predicting influenza intensity and developing preparedness strategies for the early stages of epidemics.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/11/2563seasonal influenzahuman mobilitydriverChina |
| spellingShingle | Jiao Yang Xudong Guo Ting Zhang Qing Wang Xingxing Zhang Jin Yang Shengjie Lai Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China Viruses seasonal influenza human mobility driver China |
| title | The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China |
| title_full | The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China |
| title_short | The Impact of Urbanization and Human Mobility on Seasonal Influenza in Northern China |
| title_sort | impact of urbanization and human mobility on seasonal influenza in northern china |
| topic | seasonal influenza human mobility driver China |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/11/2563 |
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