Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast

Abstract A numerical hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the generation and evolution of storm surges in Atlantic Canada in response to synoptic‐scale surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields. The modelling was conducted as part of a broader initiative to support community‐scale inundation m...

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Main Authors: Mitchel Provan, Sean Ferguson, Enda Murphy
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2022-09-01
Series:Journal of Flood Risk Management
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12800
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author Mitchel Provan
Sean Ferguson
Enda Murphy
author_facet Mitchel Provan
Sean Ferguson
Enda Murphy
author_sort Mitchel Provan
collection DOAJ
description Abstract A numerical hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the generation and evolution of storm surges in Atlantic Canada in response to synoptic‐scale surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields. The modelling was conducted as part of a broader initiative to support community‐scale inundation modelling and coastal flood risk assessment for communities located in the Acadian Peninsula region of New Brunswick. The 44 largest storm surge events on record at a tide gauge proximate to the region of interest were simulated using the numerical model. Initially, a comparison between simulated storm surges and peak non‐tidal residuals from tide gauge records showed relatively poor agreement, producing an R2 value of 0.403. Model skill was improved by incorporating the influence of sea ice cover on air‐sea momentum transfer in the hydrodynamic model, and improved correlation with measured residuals was obtained by adding estimates of wave set‐up to the predicted storm surges, ultimately resulting in an R2 value of 0.803. The results of the simulations provided a basis for identifying distinct regional factors affecting storm surges and water level residuals and demonstrated conditions where wave set‐up and sea ice cover play an important role in contributing to extreme high water levels.
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spelling doaj.art-e63b071ee60a45b8b2dc62ff518a4d772022-12-22T03:44:22ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2022-09-01153n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.12800Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic CoastMitchel Provan0Sean Ferguson1Enda Murphy2Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre National Research Council Canada Ottawa Ontario CanadaOcean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre National Research Council Canada Ottawa Ontario CanadaOcean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre National Research Council Canada Ottawa Ontario CanadaAbstract A numerical hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the generation and evolution of storm surges in Atlantic Canada in response to synoptic‐scale surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields. The modelling was conducted as part of a broader initiative to support community‐scale inundation modelling and coastal flood risk assessment for communities located in the Acadian Peninsula region of New Brunswick. The 44 largest storm surge events on record at a tide gauge proximate to the region of interest were simulated using the numerical model. Initially, a comparison between simulated storm surges and peak non‐tidal residuals from tide gauge records showed relatively poor agreement, producing an R2 value of 0.403. Model skill was improved by incorporating the influence of sea ice cover on air‐sea momentum transfer in the hydrodynamic model, and improved correlation with measured residuals was obtained by adding estimates of wave set‐up to the predicted storm surges, ultimately resulting in an R2 value of 0.803. The results of the simulations provided a basis for identifying distinct regional factors affecting storm surges and water level residuals and demonstrated conditions where wave set‐up and sea ice cover play an important role in contributing to extreme high water levels.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12800coastal floodinghydrodynamic modellingsea icestorm surgeTELEMAC
spellingShingle Mitchel Provan
Sean Ferguson
Enda Murphy
Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast
Journal of Flood Risk Management
coastal flooding
hydrodynamic modelling
sea ice
storm surge
TELEMAC
title Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast
title_full Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast
title_fullStr Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast
title_full_unstemmed Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast
title_short Storm surge contributions to flood hazards on Canada's Atlantic Coast
title_sort storm surge contributions to flood hazards on canada s atlantic coast
topic coastal flooding
hydrodynamic modelling
sea ice
storm surge
TELEMAC
url https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12800
work_keys_str_mv AT mitchelprovan stormsurgecontributionstofloodhazardsoncanadasatlanticcoast
AT seanferguson stormsurgecontributionstofloodhazardsoncanadasatlanticcoast
AT endamurphy stormsurgecontributionstofloodhazardsoncanadasatlanticcoast