Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios
Objectives: Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted to the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test and their effects. Methods: The...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000415 |
| _version_ | 1827279488785842176 |
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| author | Marco Claudio Traini Carla Caponi Riccardo Ferrari Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio |
| author_facet | Marco Claudio Traini Carla Caponi Riccardo Ferrari Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio |
| author_sort | Marco Claudio Traini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted to the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test and their effects. Methods: The model satisfactory reproduces the data of the Italian survey showing a relevant predictive power and relegating in a secondary position models which do not include, in the simulation, the presence of asymptomatic groups. The corrections due to the serological test sensitivity (in particular those ones depending on the symptoms onset) are crucial for a realistic analysis of the unreported (and asymptomatic) components. Results: The relevant presence of an unreported component during the second pandemic wave in Italy is confirmed and the ratio of reported to unreported cases is predicted to be roughly 1:4 in the last months of year 2020. A method to correct the serological data on the basis of the antibody sensitivity is suggested and systematically applied. The asymptomatic component is also studied in some detail and its amount quantified. A model analyses of the vaccination scenarios is performed confirming the relevance of a massive campaign (at least 80000 immunized per day) during the first six months of the year 2021, to obtain important immunization effects within August/September 2021. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:19:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e646e0eb0c084ba2bd604115b27324f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:19:47Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-e646e0eb0c084ba2bd604115b27324f82024-04-17T01:58:21ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272021-01-016909923Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenariosMarco Claudio Traini0Carla Caponi1Riccardo Ferrari2Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio3Dipartimento di Fisica, Università Degli Studi di Trento, Via Sommarive 14, I-38123, Trento-Povo, Italy; Corresponding author.Clinica Geriatrica, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria, Piazzale Gambuli 1, 06132, Perugia, ItalyBilubah LLC, 30 N. Gould St, Suite 6739, Sheridan, WY, 82801, USAClinica Malattie Infettive, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria, Piazzale Gambuli 1, 06132, Perugia, ItalyObjectives: Aim of the present paper is the study of the large unreported component, characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic event in Italy, taking advantage of the Istat survey. Particular attention is devoted to the sensitivity and specificity of the serological test and their effects. Methods: The model satisfactory reproduces the data of the Italian survey showing a relevant predictive power and relegating in a secondary position models which do not include, in the simulation, the presence of asymptomatic groups. The corrections due to the serological test sensitivity (in particular those ones depending on the symptoms onset) are crucial for a realistic analysis of the unreported (and asymptomatic) components. Results: The relevant presence of an unreported component during the second pandemic wave in Italy is confirmed and the ratio of reported to unreported cases is predicted to be roughly 1:4 in the last months of year 2020. A method to correct the serological data on the basis of the antibody sensitivity is suggested and systematically applied. The asymptomatic component is also studied in some detail and its amount quantified. A model analyses of the vaccination scenarios is performed confirming the relevance of a massive campaign (at least 80000 immunized per day) during the first six months of the year 2021, to obtain important immunization effects within August/September 2021.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000415ARS-CoV-2Asymptomatic and unreported casesSeroprevalenceEpidemiological modelsSensitivity and specificity of the serological testsVaccination |
| spellingShingle | Marco Claudio Traini Carla Caponi Riccardo Ferrari Giuseppe Vittorio De Socio Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios Infectious Disease Modelling ARS-CoV-2 Asymptomatic and unreported cases Seroprevalence Epidemiological models Sensitivity and specificity of the serological tests Vaccination |
| title | Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios |
| title_full | Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios |
| title_short | Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios |
| title_sort | modelling sars cov 2 unreported cases in italy analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios |
| topic | ARS-CoV-2 Asymptomatic and unreported cases Seroprevalence Epidemiological models Sensitivity and specificity of the serological tests Vaccination |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042721000415 |
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