A Comparative Examination of Management Forecasts and Box Jenkins Forecasts of Earning
In this research the investigator tries to predict the companies’ EPS by comparing the most famous forecast with management foresees companies’ budget. For this goal, among different types of forecasting methods, the most famous of them (Box-Jenkins method) is chosen and based on economic evaluation...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
| Published: |
Allameh Tabataba'i University Press
2005-09-01
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| Series: | مطالعات تجربی حسابداری مالی |
| Online Access: | https://qjma.atu.ac.ir/article_4137_25709cc908a0dcc18f24b8906d1b2ecc.pdf |
| Summary: | In this research the investigator tries to predict the companies’ EPS by comparing the most famous forecast with management foresees companies’ budget. For this goal, among different types of forecasting methods, the most famous of them (Box-Jenkins method) is chosen and based on economic evaluation methods, appropriate model will be suited. It is clear that as per correctness test methods and evaluation tests the above mentioned model should be confirmed. In this manner a suitable forecasting model shall be obtained. Then, by Wilkinson rank sum test, the suited forecast model with management forecast will be situated along each other and by calculating their deviation from real EPS from the point of closing to the reality will be judged.
The result of this research shows that the EPS mentioned by management in the companies’ budget is closer to reality than the EPS foresee by Box Jenkins time series model. In more clear word, the declared EPS by manager is more real compare to the best time series forecast models. |
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| ISSN: | 2821-0166 2538-2519 |