Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed?
Climate change is modifying the way we design and operate water infrastructure, including reservoirs. A particular issue is that current infrastructure and reservoir management rules will likely operate under changing conditions different to those used in their design. Thus, there is a big need to i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Water |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/1/64 |
| _version_ | 1797542913246232576 |
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| author | Cristián Chadwick Jorge Gironás Pilar Barría Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Meza |
| author_facet | Cristián Chadwick Jorge Gironás Pilar Barría Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Meza |
| author_sort | Cristián Chadwick |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is modifying the way we design and operate water infrastructure, including reservoirs. A particular issue is that current infrastructure and reservoir management rules will likely operate under changing conditions different to those used in their design. Thus, there is a big need to identify the obsolescence of current operation rules under climate change, without compromising the proper treatment of uncertainty. Acknowledging that decision making benefits from the scientific knowledge, mainly when presented in a simple and easy-to-understand manner, such identification—and the corresponding uncertainty—must be clearly described and communicated. This paper presents a methodology to identify, in a simple and useful way, the time when current reservoir operation rules fail under changing climate by properly treating and presenting its aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and showing its deep uncertainty. For this purpose, we use a reliability–resilience–vulnerability framework with a General Circulation Models (GCM) ensemble under the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios to compare the historical and future long-term reservoir system performances under its current operation rule in the Limarí basin, Chile, as a case study. The results include percentiles that define the uncertainty range, showing that during the 21st century there are significant changes at the time-based reliability by the 2030s, resilience between the 2030s and 2040s, volume-based reliability by the 2080s, and the maximum failure by the 2070s. Overall, this approach allows the identification of the timing of systematic failures in the performance of water systems given a certain performance threshold, which contributes to the planning, prioritization and implementation timing of adaptation alternatives. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:38:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e66e2a43a43240b295c658d6ac56582f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:38:13Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-e66e2a43a43240b295c658d6ac56582f2023-11-21T07:25:18ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412020-12-011316410.3390/w13010064Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed?Cristián Chadwick0Jorge Gironás1Pilar Barría2Sebastián Vicuña3Francisco Meza4Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8820808, ChileDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, ChileFacultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservación de la Naturaleza, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8820808, ChileDepartamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Ambiental, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, ChileCentro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 7820436, ChileClimate change is modifying the way we design and operate water infrastructure, including reservoirs. A particular issue is that current infrastructure and reservoir management rules will likely operate under changing conditions different to those used in their design. Thus, there is a big need to identify the obsolescence of current operation rules under climate change, without compromising the proper treatment of uncertainty. Acknowledging that decision making benefits from the scientific knowledge, mainly when presented in a simple and easy-to-understand manner, such identification—and the corresponding uncertainty—must be clearly described and communicated. This paper presents a methodology to identify, in a simple and useful way, the time when current reservoir operation rules fail under changing climate by properly treating and presenting its aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and showing its deep uncertainty. For this purpose, we use a reliability–resilience–vulnerability framework with a General Circulation Models (GCM) ensemble under the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios to compare the historical and future long-term reservoir system performances under its current operation rule in the Limarí basin, Chile, as a case study. The results include percentiles that define the uncertainty range, showing that during the 21st century there are significant changes at the time-based reliability by the 2030s, resilience between the 2030s and 2040s, volume-based reliability by the 2080s, and the maximum failure by the 2070s. Overall, this approach allows the identification of the timing of systematic failures in the performance of water systems given a certain performance threshold, which contributes to the planning, prioritization and implementation timing of adaptation alternatives.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/1/64decision makingreliabilityresiliencevulnerabilityreservoir operationtime of emergence |
| spellingShingle | Cristián Chadwick Jorge Gironás Pilar Barría Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Meza Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? Water decision making reliability resilience vulnerability reservoir operation time of emergence |
| title | Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? |
| title_full | Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? |
| title_short | Assessing Reservoir Performance under Climate Change. When Is It Going to Be Too Late If Current Water Management Is Not Changed? |
| title_sort | assessing reservoir performance under climate change when is it going to be too late if current water management is not changed |
| topic | decision making reliability resilience vulnerability reservoir operation time of emergence |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/1/64 |
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