Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks
In this study, a new integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model is proposed to reduce overall logistics costs. To achieve this goal, two phases were considered in the model. In the first phase, a multi-criteria group decision-making model was developed to select...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023094975 |
| _version_ | 1797429725545627648 |
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| author | Md. Mohibul Islam Masahiro Arakawa |
| author_facet | Md. Mohibul Islam Masahiro Arakawa |
| author_sort | Md. Mohibul Islam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, a new integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model is proposed to reduce overall logistics costs. To achieve this goal, two phases were considered in the model. In the first phase, a multi-criteria group decision-making model was developed to select a trustworthy supplier. In the second stage, the selected suppliers were integrated with other stakeholders to develop a rolling-planning-based logistics model using a variety of risky scenarios. Several risk factors including price variability, demand, and quality risks were considered in the model. By considering these risk factors, a new risk-embedded rolling-planning logistics method was established that regulates inventory, stock-out, and overstock problems by constantly controlling the production volume at the manufacturing site based on actual demands. In this model, the supplier's side material quality, price fluctuation risks, and customer-side demand risks were considered simultaneously. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, a numerical example was set up, and the obtained results were compared with those of another model where fixed volume production and delivery approach was used instead of the rolling-planning approach. To verify the superiority and robustness of the proposed model, its performance was verified through a sensitivity analysis under different experimental conditions. The findings show that in a risk environment, the proposed model estimates lower logistics costs of 2697648.00 units compared to another model whose costs were 2721843.00 units. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:17:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e68e9a781f584aaf9e9b9bb2bbc347a0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T09:17:19Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-e68e9a781f584aaf9e9b9bb2bbc347a02023-12-02T07:05:40ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402023-11-01911e22289Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risksMd. Mohibul Islam0Masahiro Arakawa1Department of Industrial & Production Engineering, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Rajshahi, 6204, Bangladesh; Corresponding author.Department of Architecture, Design, Civil Engineering, and Industrial Management Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi, 466-8555, JapanIn this study, a new integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model is proposed to reduce overall logistics costs. To achieve this goal, two phases were considered in the model. In the first phase, a multi-criteria group decision-making model was developed to select a trustworthy supplier. In the second stage, the selected suppliers were integrated with other stakeholders to develop a rolling-planning-based logistics model using a variety of risky scenarios. Several risk factors including price variability, demand, and quality risks were considered in the model. By considering these risk factors, a new risk-embedded rolling-planning logistics method was established that regulates inventory, stock-out, and overstock problems by constantly controlling the production volume at the manufacturing site based on actual demands. In this model, the supplier's side material quality, price fluctuation risks, and customer-side demand risks were considered simultaneously. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, a numerical example was set up, and the obtained results were compared with those of another model where fixed volume production and delivery approach was used instead of the rolling-planning approach. To verify the superiority and robustness of the proposed model, its performance was verified through a sensitivity analysis under different experimental conditions. The findings show that in a risk environment, the proposed model estimates lower logistics costs of 2697648.00 units compared to another model whose costs were 2721843.00 units.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023094975Rolling planningInventory controlVarious risksScenario analysisFuzzy AHPTOPSIS method |
| spellingShingle | Md. Mohibul Islam Masahiro Arakawa Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks Heliyon Rolling planning Inventory control Various risks Scenario analysis Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS method |
| title | Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks |
| title_full | Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks |
| title_fullStr | Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks |
| title_short | Development of an integrated scenario-based stochastic rolling-planning multistage logistics model considering various risks |
| title_sort | development of an integrated scenario based stochastic rolling planning multistage logistics model considering various risks |
| topic | Rolling planning Inventory control Various risks Scenario analysis Fuzzy AHP TOPSIS method |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023094975 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mdmohibulislam developmentofanintegratedscenariobasedstochasticrollingplanningmultistagelogisticsmodelconsideringvariousrisks AT masahiroarakawa developmentofanintegratedscenariobasedstochasticrollingplanningmultistagelogisticsmodelconsideringvariousrisks |