Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks
We propose an SIR epidemic model taking into account prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) such as wearing masks and respecting safety distances. We look for the conditions to avoid a second epidemic peak in the phase of release from confinement. We derive equations for the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2020-12-01
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| Series: | AIMS Public Health |
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| Online Access: | http://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/publichealth.2020063?viewType=HTML |
| _version_ | 1818352935490289664 |
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| author | Ali Moussaoui El Hadi Zerga |
| author_facet | Ali Moussaoui El Hadi Zerga |
| author_sort | Ali Moussaoui |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We propose an SIR epidemic model taking into account prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) such as wearing masks and respecting safety distances. We look for the conditions to avoid a second epidemic peak in the phase of release from confinement. We derive equations for the critical levels of mask efficiency, mask adoption (fraction of population wearing masks) and fraction of population engaging in physical distancing that lower the basic reproduction number ℜ0 to unity. Conclusions: For ℜ0 = 2.5, if at least 40% of people wear masks with efficiency 50%, and at least 20% of the population without masks (or anti-maskers) respect physical distancing measures, the effective reproduction number can be reduced to less than 1 and COVID-19 infections would plummet. The model predicts also that if at least half of the people respecting physical distancing, COVID-19 outbreaks with ℜ0 of about 3, would be theoretically extinguished without wearing masks. The results of this study provide an alternative explanation for the spread of the disease, and suggest some valuable policy recommendations about the control strategies applied to mitigate disease transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T19:01:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e6fcf676bd2d487aa1c088491cf8e03d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2327-8994 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T19:01:32Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AIMS Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-e6fcf676bd2d487aa1c088491cf8e03d2022-12-21T23:34:41ZengAIMS PressAIMS Public Health2327-89942020-12-017481682710.3934/publichealth.2020063Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masksAli Moussaoui0El Hadi Zerga1Laboratoire d'Analyse Non linéaire et Mathématiques Appliquées, Department of Mathematics, University of Tlemcen, AlgeriaLaboratoire d'Analyse Non linéaire et Mathématiques Appliquées, Department of Mathematics, University of Tlemcen, AlgeriaWe propose an SIR epidemic model taking into account prevention measures against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) such as wearing masks and respecting safety distances. We look for the conditions to avoid a second epidemic peak in the phase of release from confinement. We derive equations for the critical levels of mask efficiency, mask adoption (fraction of population wearing masks) and fraction of population engaging in physical distancing that lower the basic reproduction number ℜ0 to unity. Conclusions: For ℜ0 = 2.5, if at least 40% of people wear masks with efficiency 50%, and at least 20% of the population without masks (or anti-maskers) respect physical distancing measures, the effective reproduction number can be reduced to less than 1 and COVID-19 infections would plummet. The model predicts also that if at least half of the people respecting physical distancing, COVID-19 outbreaks with ℜ0 of about 3, would be theoretically extinguished without wearing masks. The results of this study provide an alternative explanation for the spread of the disease, and suggest some valuable policy recommendations about the control strategies applied to mitigate disease transmission.http://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/publichealth.2020063?viewType=HTMLcovid-19sir compartmental modelbasic reproduction numbermask protectionsocial distancing |
| spellingShingle | Ali Moussaoui El Hadi Zerga Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks AIMS Public Health covid-19 sir compartmental model basic reproduction number mask protection social distancing |
| title | Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks |
| title_full | Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks |
| title_fullStr | Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks |
| title_short | Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Algeria: The impact of physical distancing and face masks |
| title_sort | transmission dynamics of covid 19 in algeria the impact of physical distancing and face masks |
| topic | covid-19 sir compartmental model basic reproduction number mask protection social distancing |
| url | http://www.aimspress.com/article/10.3934/publichealth.2020063?viewType=HTML |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alimoussaoui transmissiondynamicsofcovid19inalgeriatheimpactofphysicaldistancingandfacemasks AT elhadizerga transmissiondynamicsofcovid19inalgeriatheimpactofphysicaldistancingandfacemasks |