Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data
Abstract Background In malaria endemic regions, transmission of Plasmodium falciparum parasites is often seasonal with very low transmission during the dry season and high transmission in the wet season. Parasites survive the dry season within some individuals who experience prolonged carriage of pa...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-02-01
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| Series: | Malaria Journal |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04461-1 |
| _version_ | 1811171851570774016 |
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| author | Eva Stadler Deborah Cromer Samson Ogunlade Aissata Ongoiba Safiatou Doumbo Kassoum Kayentao Boubacar Traore Peter D. Crompton Silvia Portugal Miles P. Davenport David S. Khoury |
| author_facet | Eva Stadler Deborah Cromer Samson Ogunlade Aissata Ongoiba Safiatou Doumbo Kassoum Kayentao Boubacar Traore Peter D. Crompton Silvia Portugal Miles P. Davenport David S. Khoury |
| author_sort | Eva Stadler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background In malaria endemic regions, transmission of Plasmodium falciparum parasites is often seasonal with very low transmission during the dry season and high transmission in the wet season. Parasites survive the dry season within some individuals who experience prolonged carriage of parasites and are thought to ‘seed’ infection in the next transmission season. Methods Dry season carriers and their role in the subsequent transmission season are characterized using a combination of mathematical simulations and data analysis of previously described data from a longitudinal study in Mali of individuals aged 3 months–12 years (n = 579). Results Simulating the life-history of individuals experiencing repeated exposure to infection predicts that dry season carriage is more likely in the oldest, most exposed and most immune individuals. This hypothesis is supported by the data from Mali, which shows that carriers are significantly older, experience a higher biting rate at the beginning of the transmission season and develop clinical malaria later than non-carriers. Further, since the most exposed individuals in a community are most likely to be dry season carriers, this is predicted to enable a more than twofold faster spread of parasites into the mosquito population at the start of the subsequent wet season. Conclusions Carriage of malaria parasites over the months-long dry season in Mali is most likely in the older, more exposed and more immune children. These children may act as super-spreaders facilitating the fast spread of parasites at the beginning of the next transmission season. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:22:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e7689aa3ba314587920c222a521eb40d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1475-2875 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T17:22:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Malaria Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-e7689aa3ba314587920c222a521eb40d2023-02-05T12:05:18ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752023-02-0122111310.1186/s12936-023-04461-1Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal dataEva Stadler0Deborah Cromer1Samson Ogunlade2Aissata Ongoiba3Safiatou Doumbo4Kassoum Kayentao5Boubacar Traore6Peter D. Crompton7Silvia Portugal8Miles P. Davenport9David S. Khoury10The Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyThe Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyThe Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyMalaria Research and Training Centre, Department of Epidemiology of Parasitic Diseases, International Center of Excellence in Research, University of Sciences, Technique, and Technology of BamakoMalaria Research and Training Centre, Department of Epidemiology of Parasitic Diseases, International Center of Excellence in Research, University of Sciences, Technique, and Technology of BamakoMalaria Research and Training Centre, Department of Epidemiology of Parasitic Diseases, International Center of Excellence in Research, University of Sciences, Technique, and Technology of BamakoMalaria Research and Training Centre, Department of Epidemiology of Parasitic Diseases, International Center of Excellence in Research, University of Sciences, Technique, and Technology of BamakoMalaria Infection Biology and Immunity Section, Laboratory of Immunogenetics, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of HealthMalaria Infection Biology and Immunity Section, Laboratory of Immunogenetics, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of HealthThe Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyThe Kirby Institute, UNSW SydneyAbstract Background In malaria endemic regions, transmission of Plasmodium falciparum parasites is often seasonal with very low transmission during the dry season and high transmission in the wet season. Parasites survive the dry season within some individuals who experience prolonged carriage of parasites and are thought to ‘seed’ infection in the next transmission season. Methods Dry season carriers and their role in the subsequent transmission season are characterized using a combination of mathematical simulations and data analysis of previously described data from a longitudinal study in Mali of individuals aged 3 months–12 years (n = 579). Results Simulating the life-history of individuals experiencing repeated exposure to infection predicts that dry season carriage is more likely in the oldest, most exposed and most immune individuals. This hypothesis is supported by the data from Mali, which shows that carriers are significantly older, experience a higher biting rate at the beginning of the transmission season and develop clinical malaria later than non-carriers. Further, since the most exposed individuals in a community are most likely to be dry season carriers, this is predicted to enable a more than twofold faster spread of parasites into the mosquito population at the start of the subsequent wet season. Conclusions Carriage of malaria parasites over the months-long dry season in Mali is most likely in the older, more exposed and more immune children. These children may act as super-spreaders facilitating the fast spread of parasites at the beginning of the next transmission season.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04461-1Seasonal transmissionPlasmodium falciparumWithin-host modelParasite carriageMali |
| spellingShingle | Eva Stadler Deborah Cromer Samson Ogunlade Aissata Ongoiba Safiatou Doumbo Kassoum Kayentao Boubacar Traore Peter D. Crompton Silvia Portugal Miles P. Davenport David S. Khoury Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data Malaria Journal Seasonal transmission Plasmodium falciparum Within-host model Parasite carriage Mali |
| title | Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data |
| title_full | Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data |
| title_fullStr | Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data |
| title_short | Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data |
| title_sort | evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season modelling analysis of longitudinal data |
| topic | Seasonal transmission Plasmodium falciparum Within-host model Parasite carriage Mali |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04461-1 |
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