The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics
<p>Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-12-01
|
| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/14779/2023/acp-23-14779-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797435284455948288 |
|---|---|
| author | H. Ahsan H. Wang J. Wu M. Wu S. J. Smith S. Bauer H. Suchyta D. Olivié G. Myhre H. Matsui H. Bian J.-F. Lamarque K. Carslaw L. Horowitz L. Regayre L. Regayre L. Regayre M. Chin M. Schulz R. B. Skeie T. Takemura V. Naik |
| author_facet | H. Ahsan H. Wang J. Wu M. Wu S. J. Smith S. Bauer H. Suchyta D. Olivié G. Myhre H. Matsui H. Bian J.-F. Lamarque K. Carslaw L. Horowitz L. Regayre L. Regayre L. Regayre M. Chin M. Schulz R. B. Skeie T. Takemura V. Naik |
| author_sort | H. Ahsan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> injection, seasonality of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>, SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>, and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>, which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.35 W m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−2</sup></span>), SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> at height consistently increased SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across<span id="page14780"/> models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:44:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e773de97daaf4adcbf86816f3832f916 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:44:58Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-e773de97daaf4adcbf86816f3832f9162023-12-01T10:52:10ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242023-12-0123147791479910.5194/acp-23-14779-2023The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristicsH. Ahsan0H. Wang1J. Wu2M. Wu3S. J. Smith4S. Bauer5H. Suchyta6D. Olivié7G. Myhre8H. Matsui9H. Bian10J.-F. Lamarque11K. Carslaw12L. Horowitz13L. Regayre14L. Regayre15L. Regayre16M. Chin17M. Schulz18R. B. Skeie19T. Takemura20V. Naik21Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USAAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USAAtmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USAJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USANASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USAJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USANorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayGraduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, JapanNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USAInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, Devon, UKCentre for Environmental Modelling and Computation, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USANorwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, NorwayCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, NorwayResearch Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, JapanNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA<p>Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> injection, seasonality of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>, SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>, and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>, which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of <span class="inline-formula">−</span>0.35 W m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−2</sup></span>), SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8 d), surface SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentration (up to 59 % decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23 % increase). Emitting SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> at height consistently increased SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across<span id="page14780"/> models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.</p>https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/14779/2023/acp-23-14779-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | H. Ahsan H. Wang J. Wu M. Wu S. J. Smith S. Bauer H. Suchyta D. Olivié G. Myhre H. Matsui H. Bian J.-F. Lamarque K. Carslaw L. Horowitz L. Regayre L. Regayre L. Regayre M. Chin M. Schulz R. B. Skeie T. Takemura V. Naik The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics |
| title_full | The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics |
| title_fullStr | The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics |
| title_short | The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics |
| title_sort | emissions model intercomparison project emissions mip quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics |
| url | https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/14779/2023/acp-23-14779-2023.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hahsan theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hwang theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT jwu theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT mwu theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT sjsmith theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT sbauer theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hsuchyta theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT dolivie theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT gmyhre theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hmatsui theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hbian theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT jflamarque theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT kcarslaw theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lhorowitz theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lregayre theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lregayre theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lregayre theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT mchin theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT mschulz theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT rbskeie theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT ttakemura theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT vnaik theemissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hahsan emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hwang emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT jwu emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT mwu emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT sjsmith emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT sbauer emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hsuchyta emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT dolivie emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT gmyhre emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hmatsui emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT hbian emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT jflamarque emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT kcarslaw emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lhorowitz emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lregayre emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lregayre emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT lregayre emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT mchin emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT mschulz emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT rbskeie emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT ttakemura emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics AT vnaik emissionsmodelintercomparisonprojectemissionsmipquantifyingmodelsensitivitytoemissioncharacteristics |