Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis
This paper used Our World data for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) death count, test data, stringency, and transmission count and prepared a path model for COVID-19 deaths. We augmented the model with age structure-related variables and comorbidity via non-communicable diseases for 117 countries...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.736347/full |
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| author | Gour Gobinda Goswami Mausumi Mahapatro A. R. M. Mehrab Ali Raisa Rahman |
| author_facet | Gour Gobinda Goswami Mausumi Mahapatro A. R. M. Mehrab Ali Raisa Rahman |
| author_sort | Gour Gobinda Goswami |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper used Our World data for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) death count, test data, stringency, and transmission count and prepared a path model for COVID-19 deaths. We augmented the model with age structure-related variables and comorbidity via non-communicable diseases for 117 countries of the world for September 23, 2021, on a cross-section basis. A broad-based global quantitative study incorporating these two prominent channels with regional variation was unavailable in the existing literature. Old age and comorbidity were identified as two prime determinants of COVID-19 mortality. The path model showed that after controlling for these factors, one SD increase in the proportion of persons above 65, above 70, or of median age raised COVID-19 mortality by more than 0.12 SDs for 117 countries. The regional intensity of death is alarmingly high in South America, Europe, and North America compared with Oceania. After controlling for regions, the figure was raised to 0.213, which was even higher. For old age, the incremental coefficient was the highest for South America (0.564), and Europe (0.314), which were substantially higher than in Oceania. The comorbidity channel via non-communicable diseases illustrated that one SD increase in non-communicable disease intensity increased COVID-19 mortality by 0.132 for the whole sample. The regional figure for the non-communicable disease was 0.594 for South America and 0.358 for Europe compared with the benchmark region Oceania. The results were statistically significant at a 10% level of significance or above. This suggested that we should prioritize vaccinations for the elderly and people with comorbidity via non-communicable diseases like heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes. Further attention should be given to South America and Europe, which are the worst affected regions of the world. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T02:25:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e77a70f7eb65433d905ee020b163cea2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-2565 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T02:25:32Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-e77a70f7eb65433d905ee020b163cea22022-12-21T20:39:55ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652021-11-01910.3389/fpubh.2021.736347736347Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path AnalysisGour Gobinda Goswami0Mausumi Mahapatro1A. R. M. Mehrab Ali2Raisa Rahman3Department of Economics, North South University, Dhaka, BangladeshDepartment of History, Politics and Political Economy, Regis University, Denver, CO, United StatesAureolin Research, Consultancy and Expertise Development (ARCED) Foundation, Dhaka, BangladeshDepartment of Economics, North South University, Dhaka, BangladeshThis paper used Our World data for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) death count, test data, stringency, and transmission count and prepared a path model for COVID-19 deaths. We augmented the model with age structure-related variables and comorbidity via non-communicable diseases for 117 countries of the world for September 23, 2021, on a cross-section basis. A broad-based global quantitative study incorporating these two prominent channels with regional variation was unavailable in the existing literature. Old age and comorbidity were identified as two prime determinants of COVID-19 mortality. The path model showed that after controlling for these factors, one SD increase in the proportion of persons above 65, above 70, or of median age raised COVID-19 mortality by more than 0.12 SDs for 117 countries. The regional intensity of death is alarmingly high in South America, Europe, and North America compared with Oceania. After controlling for regions, the figure was raised to 0.213, which was even higher. For old age, the incremental coefficient was the highest for South America (0.564), and Europe (0.314), which were substantially higher than in Oceania. The comorbidity channel via non-communicable diseases illustrated that one SD increase in non-communicable disease intensity increased COVID-19 mortality by 0.132 for the whole sample. The regional figure for the non-communicable disease was 0.594 for South America and 0.358 for Europe compared with the benchmark region Oceania. The results were statistically significant at a 10% level of significance or above. This suggested that we should prioritize vaccinations for the elderly and people with comorbidity via non-communicable diseases like heart disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes. Further attention should be given to South America and Europe, which are the worst affected regions of the world.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.736347/fullCOVID-19death ratemortalitydeterminants of COVID-19 mortalitypath analysisold age |
| spellingShingle | Gour Gobinda Goswami Mausumi Mahapatro A. R. M. Mehrab Ali Raisa Rahman Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis Frontiers in Public Health COVID-19 death rate mortality determinants of COVID-19 mortality path analysis old age |
| title | Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis |
| title_full | Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis |
| title_short | Do Old Age and Comorbidity via Non-Communicable Diseases Matter for COVID-19 Mortality? A Path Analysis |
| title_sort | do old age and comorbidity via non communicable diseases matter for covid 19 mortality a path analysis |
| topic | COVID-19 death rate mortality determinants of COVID-19 mortality path analysis old age |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.736347/full |
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