Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques
The choice of holiday destinations is highly depended on climate considerations. Nowadays, since the effects of the climate crisis are being increasingly felt, the need for accurate weather and climate services for hotels is crucial. Such a service could be beneficial for both the future planning of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/878 |
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| author | Antonios Parasyris George Alexandrakis Georgios V. Kozyrakis Katerina Spanoudaki Nikolaos A. Kampanis |
| author_facet | Antonios Parasyris George Alexandrakis Georgios V. Kozyrakis Katerina Spanoudaki Nikolaos A. Kampanis |
| author_sort | Antonios Parasyris |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The choice of holiday destinations is highly depended on climate considerations. Nowadays, since the effects of the climate crisis are being increasingly felt, the need for accurate weather and climate services for hotels is crucial. Such a service could be beneficial for both the future planning of tourists’ activities and destinations and for hotel managers as it could help in decision making about the planning and expansion of the touristic season, due to a prediction of higher temperatures for a longer time span, thus causing increased revenue for companies in the local touristic sector. The aim of this work is to calculate predictions on meteorological variables using statistical techniques as well as artificial intelligence (AI) for a specific area of interest utilising data from an in situ meteorological station, and to produce valuable and reliable localised predictions with the most cost-effective method possible. This investigation will answer the question of the most suitable prediction method for time series data from a single meteorological station that is deployed in a specific location; in our case, in a hotel in the northern area of Crete, Greece. The temporal resolution of the measurements used was 3 h and the forecast horizon considered here was up to 2 days. As prediction techniques, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), AI techniques like the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and hybrid combinations of the two are used. Multiple meteorological variables are considered as input for the LSTM and hybrid methodologies, like temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed, unlike the SARIMA that has a single variable. Variables of interest are divided into those that present seasonality and patterns, such as temperature and humidity, and those that are more stochastic with no known seasonality and patterns, such as wind speed and direction. Two benchmark techniques are used for comparison and quantification of the added predictive ability, namely the climatological forecast and the persistence model, which shows a considerable amount of improvement over the naive prediction methods, especially in the 1-day forecasts. The results indicate that the examined hybrid methodology performs best at temperature and wind speed forecasts, closely followed by the SARIMA, whereas LSTM performs better overall at the humidity forecast, even after the correction of the hybrid to the SARIMA model. Lastly, different hybrid methodologies are discussed and introduced for further improvement of meteorological predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:27:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e7d3eb3c864f4e69b6b2e6239e80c56b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:27:09Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-e7d3eb3c864f4e69b6b2e6239e80c56b2023-11-23T15:32:04ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-05-0113687810.3390/atmos13060878Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid TechniquesAntonios Parasyris0George Alexandrakis1Georgios V. Kozyrakis2Katerina Spanoudaki3Nikolaos A. Kampanis4Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 70013 Heraklion, GreeceFoundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 70013 Heraklion, GreeceFoundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 70013 Heraklion, GreeceFoundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 70013 Heraklion, GreeceFoundation for Research and Technology-Hellas, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, 70013 Heraklion, GreeceThe choice of holiday destinations is highly depended on climate considerations. Nowadays, since the effects of the climate crisis are being increasingly felt, the need for accurate weather and climate services for hotels is crucial. Such a service could be beneficial for both the future planning of tourists’ activities and destinations and for hotel managers as it could help in decision making about the planning and expansion of the touristic season, due to a prediction of higher temperatures for a longer time span, thus causing increased revenue for companies in the local touristic sector. The aim of this work is to calculate predictions on meteorological variables using statistical techniques as well as artificial intelligence (AI) for a specific area of interest utilising data from an in situ meteorological station, and to produce valuable and reliable localised predictions with the most cost-effective method possible. This investigation will answer the question of the most suitable prediction method for time series data from a single meteorological station that is deployed in a specific location; in our case, in a hotel in the northern area of Crete, Greece. The temporal resolution of the measurements used was 3 h and the forecast horizon considered here was up to 2 days. As prediction techniques, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), AI techniques like the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network and hybrid combinations of the two are used. Multiple meteorological variables are considered as input for the LSTM and hybrid methodologies, like temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed, unlike the SARIMA that has a single variable. Variables of interest are divided into those that present seasonality and patterns, such as temperature and humidity, and those that are more stochastic with no known seasonality and patterns, such as wind speed and direction. Two benchmark techniques are used for comparison and quantification of the added predictive ability, namely the climatological forecast and the persistence model, which shows a considerable amount of improvement over the naive prediction methods, especially in the 1-day forecasts. The results indicate that the examined hybrid methodology performs best at temperature and wind speed forecasts, closely followed by the SARIMA, whereas LSTM performs better overall at the humidity forecast, even after the correction of the hybrid to the SARIMA model. Lastly, different hybrid methodologies are discussed and introduced for further improvement of meteorological predictions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/878SARIMAartificial neural networks (ANN)LSTMhybrid methodologiespredictionin situ measurements |
| spellingShingle | Antonios Parasyris George Alexandrakis Georgios V. Kozyrakis Katerina Spanoudaki Nikolaos A. Kampanis Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques Atmosphere SARIMA artificial neural networks (ANN) LSTM hybrid methodologies prediction in situ measurements |
| title | Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques |
| title_full | Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques |
| title_fullStr | Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques |
| title_short | Predicting Meteorological Variables on Local Level with SARIMA, LSTM and Hybrid Techniques |
| title_sort | predicting meteorological variables on local level with sarima lstm and hybrid techniques |
| topic | SARIMA artificial neural networks (ANN) LSTM hybrid methodologies prediction in situ measurements |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/878 |
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