CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR
Background. Despite a large number of scientific disclosures on climate change issues, few studies show the effects on vegetation in high Andean ecosystems and especially within Protected Areas. Objective. Determine a predictive model using a radical scenario to establish the behavior of four specie...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.revista.ccba.uady.mx/ojs/index.php/TSA/article/view/3448 |
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| author | Daniel Adrian Vistin Eduardo Antonio Muñoz Guicela Margoth Ati |
| author_facet | Daniel Adrian Vistin Eduardo Antonio Muñoz Guicela Margoth Ati |
| author_sort | Daniel Adrian Vistin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. Despite a large number of scientific disclosures on climate change issues, few studies show the effects on vegetation in high Andean ecosystems and especially within Protected Areas. Objective. Determine a predictive model using a radical scenario to establish the behavior of four species that make up the arboreal component of the forest remnants and their potential distribution for the year 2100. Methodology. By using 19 bioclimatic variables and the orography obtained from WorldClim, the QGIS software, MaxEnt and 221 occurrences of the four tree species, the current ecological niche was modeled and projected to 2100 based on the General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the emissions of CO2 under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Results. In general, the result of the research envisions a highly negative outlook regarding the occupation area for 2100, determining that 125 ha will decrease due to the differentiation of temperature and precipitation (Bio7, Bio 14), however, 3734.63 ha will be created as new Proper sites to host these species due to the change that is specifically expected to the southeast of the reserve as a result of the increase in the planet's temperature. Implications. Results allow elaborating recommendations for adaptation to climate change and reducing future vulnerability. Conclusions. Due to the global importance that it represents for humanity and the complexity of the factors that influence the problem, a greater number of studies are necessary that contribute to a better understanding and contribute to the identification of risks and threats to generate timely adaptation strategies, mitigation and slowdown to the potential impacts of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-23T05:25:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e80115daed4741478e044222cdf64bac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1870-0462 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-23T05:25:19Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems |
| spelling | doaj.art-e80115daed4741478e044222cdf64bac2022-12-21T17:58:37ZengUniversidad Autónoma de YucatánTropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems1870-04622021-04-0124210.56369/tsaes.34481118CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADORDaniel Adrian Vistin0Eduardo Antonio Muñoz1Guicela Margoth Ati2Escuela Superior Politécnica de ChimborazoEscuela Superior Politécnica de ChimborazoEscuela Superior Politécnica de ChimborazoBackground. Despite a large number of scientific disclosures on climate change issues, few studies show the effects on vegetation in high Andean ecosystems and especially within Protected Areas. Objective. Determine a predictive model using a radical scenario to establish the behavior of four species that make up the arboreal component of the forest remnants and their potential distribution for the year 2100. Methodology. By using 19 bioclimatic variables and the orography obtained from WorldClim, the QGIS software, MaxEnt and 221 occurrences of the four tree species, the current ecological niche was modeled and projected to 2100 based on the General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the emissions of CO2 under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Results. In general, the result of the research envisions a highly negative outlook regarding the occupation area for 2100, determining that 125 ha will decrease due to the differentiation of temperature and precipitation (Bio7, Bio 14), however, 3734.63 ha will be created as new Proper sites to host these species due to the change that is specifically expected to the southeast of the reserve as a result of the increase in the planet's temperature. Implications. Results allow elaborating recommendations for adaptation to climate change and reducing future vulnerability. Conclusions. Due to the global importance that it represents for humanity and the complexity of the factors that influence the problem, a greater number of studies are necessary that contribute to a better understanding and contribute to the identification of risks and threats to generate timely adaptation strategies, mitigation and slowdown to the potential impacts of climate change.https://www.revista.ccba.uady.mx/ojs/index.php/TSA/article/view/3448cambio climáticomaxentmodelos de distribuciónnicho ecológicovariables bioclimáticasworldclim. |
| spellingShingle | Daniel Adrian Vistin Eduardo Antonio Muñoz Guicela Margoth Ati CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems cambio climático maxent modelos de distribución nicho ecológico variables bioclimáticas worldclim. |
| title | CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR |
| title_full | CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR |
| title_fullStr | CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR |
| title_full_unstemmed | CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR |
| title_short | CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OF EVERGREEN FOREST OF THE MOORLAND CHIMBORAZO FAUNA PRODUCTION RESERVE-ECUADOR |
| title_sort | climate change scenario of evergreen forest of the moorland chimborazo fauna production reserve ecuador |
| topic | cambio climático maxent modelos de distribución nicho ecológico variables bioclimáticas worldclim. |
| url | https://www.revista.ccba.uady.mx/ojs/index.php/TSA/article/view/3448 |
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