Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting
Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In t...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2015-11-01
|
| Series: | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-201511-0002_integrated-assessment-of-crop-productivity-based-on-the-food-supply-forecasting.php |
| _version_ | 1797900050613927936 |
|---|---|
| author | Waldemar BOJAR Leszek KNOPIK Jacek ŻARSKI Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA |
| author_facet | Waldemar BOJAR Leszek KNOPIK Jacek ŻARSKI Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA |
| author_sort | Waldemar BOJAR |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, the authors analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate the parameters of the distribution. The parameter estimators were constructed using the method of the maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, the yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by the prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of the stored raw food materials and the import/export policies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:38:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e805862a42d846e38527eb6292ac780c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0139-570X 1805-9295 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:38:44Z |
| publishDate | 2015-11-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| spelling | doaj.art-e805862a42d846e38527eb6292ac780c2023-02-23T03:24:38ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesAgricultural Economics (AGRICECON)0139-570X1805-92952015-11-01611150251010.17221/159/2014-AGRICECONage-201511-0002Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecastingWaldemar BOJAR0Leszek KNOPIK1Jacek ŻARSKI2Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA3Faculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, PolandFaculty of Management, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, PolandFaculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, PolandFaculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Bydgoszcz, PolandClimate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of the research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, the authors analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate the parameters of the distribution. The parameter estimators were constructed using the method of the maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, the yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by the prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of the stored raw food materials and the import/export policies.https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-201511-0002_integrated-assessment-of-crop-productivity-based-on-the-food-supply-forecasting.phpclimate changesdecision-making toolsestimation of parametersforecasted outputsgamma distributionpredicting yields |
| spellingShingle | Waldemar BOJAR Leszek KNOPIK Jacek ŻARSKI Renata KUŚMIEREK-TOMASZEWSKA Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) climate changes decision-making tools estimation of parameters forecasted outputs gamma distribution predicting yields |
| title | Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
| title_full | Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
| title_short | Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
| title_sort | integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting |
| topic | climate changes decision-making tools estimation of parameters forecasted outputs gamma distribution predicting yields |
| url | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-201511-0002_integrated-assessment-of-crop-productivity-based-on-the-food-supply-forecasting.php |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT waldemarbojar integratedassessmentofcropproductivitybasedonthefoodsupplyforecasting AT leszekknopik integratedassessmentofcropproductivitybasedonthefoodsupplyforecasting AT jacekzarski integratedassessmentofcropproductivitybasedonthefoodsupplyforecasting AT renatakusmierektomaszewska integratedassessmentofcropproductivitybasedonthefoodsupplyforecasting |