Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit
This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Te...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7765 |
| _version_ | 1797510471573569536 |
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| author | Jonathan Asante William Ampomah Dylan Rose-Coss Martha Cather Robert Balch |
| author_facet | Jonathan Asante William Ampomah Dylan Rose-Coss Martha Cather Robert Balch |
| author_sort | Jonathan Asante |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO<sub>2</sub> storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:31:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e81052a0ce55417aaef69d165c4a9057 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T05:31:57Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-e81052a0ce55417aaef69d165c4a90572023-11-22T23:13:05ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-11-011422776510.3390/en14227765Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field UnitJonathan Asante0William Ampomah1Dylan Rose-Coss2Martha Cather3Robert Balch4Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USADepartment of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USANew Mexico Oil Conservation Division, Santa Fe, NM 87801, USADepartment of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USADepartment of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USAThis paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO<sub>2</sub> storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7765carbon dioxide storagestorage efficiency factorprobabilisticexpectation curveMonte Carlo |
| spellingShingle | Jonathan Asante William Ampomah Dylan Rose-Coss Martha Cather Robert Balch Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit Energies carbon dioxide storage storage efficiency factor probabilistic expectation curve Monte Carlo |
| title | Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit |
| title_full | Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit |
| title_short | Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO<sub>2</sub> Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit |
| title_sort | probabilistic assessment and uncertainty analysis of co sub 2 sub storage capacity of the morrow b sandstone farnsworth field unit |
| topic | carbon dioxide storage storage efficiency factor probabilistic expectation curve Monte Carlo |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7765 |
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