Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia
Background: Dengue hemorrhagic fever occurs through the bite of Aedes mosquitoes, primarily Aedes aegypti, carrying dengue viruses. In recent decades, the risk increased dramatically, not only in the tropics but also in subtropical regions. Objective: This study aimed to determine the best model fo...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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YCAB Publisher
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Public Health of Indonesia |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://stikbar.org/ycabpublisher/index.php/PHI/article/view/411 |
| _version_ | 1811225467714273280 |
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| author | Mistawati Mistawati Yasnani Yasnani Hariati Lestari |
| author_facet | Mistawati Mistawati Yasnani Yasnani Hariati Lestari |
| author_sort | Mistawati Mistawati |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Dengue hemorrhagic fever occurs through the bite of Aedes mosquitoes, primarily Aedes aegypti, carrying dengue viruses. In recent decades, the risk increased dramatically, not only in the tropics but also in subtropical regions.
Objective: This study aimed to determine the best model for forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever prevalence in Sulawesi Tenggara, Indonesia.
Method: This was a retrospective analytical study using secondary data from the Sulawesi Tenggara Provincial Health Office from 2014 to 2019. ARIMA model was used for data analysis.
Results: ARIMA (0.1.1)(0.1.1)4 was selected as the best-suited model. Based on the forecast, there would be an increase in dengue hemorrhagic fever prevalence over the next two years, with a mean absolute percentage error value of 4.41%.
Conclusion: Forecasting results indicated that the peaks of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases would be in March, July, and November, and the increase will occur in the same months each year. Also, forecasting results were very good. Public health practitioners can use this model to prevent and eradicate dengue hemorrhagic fever. The ARIMA model would also be useful for nursing practice in caring for patients with dengue fever in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:07:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e84ac28d2efd437cbd0f6d24029b659f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2528-1542 2477-1570 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:07:44Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | YCAB Publisher |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Public Health of Indonesia |
| spelling | doaj.art-e84ac28d2efd437cbd0f6d24029b659f2022-12-22T03:39:03ZengYCAB PublisherPublic Health of Indonesia2528-15422477-15702021-06-0172758610.36685/phi.v7i2.411297Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, IndonesiaMistawati Mistawati0Yasnani Yasnani1Hariati Lestari2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5494-8540Department of Environment Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo,Department of Environment Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo,Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo,Background: Dengue hemorrhagic fever occurs through the bite of Aedes mosquitoes, primarily Aedes aegypti, carrying dengue viruses. In recent decades, the risk increased dramatically, not only in the tropics but also in subtropical regions. Objective: This study aimed to determine the best model for forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever prevalence in Sulawesi Tenggara, Indonesia. Method: This was a retrospective analytical study using secondary data from the Sulawesi Tenggara Provincial Health Office from 2014 to 2019. ARIMA model was used for data analysis. Results: ARIMA (0.1.1)(0.1.1)4 was selected as the best-suited model. Based on the forecast, there would be an increase in dengue hemorrhagic fever prevalence over the next two years, with a mean absolute percentage error value of 4.41%. Conclusion: Forecasting results indicated that the peaks of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases would be in March, July, and November, and the increase will occur in the same months each year. Also, forecasting results were very good. Public health practitioners can use this model to prevent and eradicate dengue hemorrhagic fever. The ARIMA model would also be useful for nursing practice in caring for patients with dengue fever in the future.https://stikbar.org/ycabpublisher/index.php/PHI/article/view/411aedesdengue virusprevalenceforecastingpublic healthpatient careindonesia |
| spellingShingle | Mistawati Mistawati Yasnani Yasnani Hariati Lestari Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia Public Health of Indonesia aedes dengue virus prevalence forecasting public health patient care indonesia |
| title | Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia |
| title_full | Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia |
| title_short | Forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using ARIMA model in Sulawesi Tenggara Province, Indonesia |
| title_sort | forecasting prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever using arima model in sulawesi tenggara province indonesia |
| topic | aedes dengue virus prevalence forecasting public health patient care indonesia |
| url | https://stikbar.org/ycabpublisher/index.php/PHI/article/view/411 |
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