Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of March 2022, almost 500 million cases have been reported worldwide. More than 6.2 million people died. The war that Russia launched for no reason on the territory of Ukraine is not only the cause of the death of tho...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
National Aerospace University «Kharkiv Aviation Institute»
2022-05-01
|
| Series: | Радіоелектронні і комп'ютерні системи |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://nti.khai.edu/ojs/index.php/reks/article/view/1697 |
| _version_ | 1797704562430181376 |
|---|---|
| author | Dmytro Chumachenko Pavlo Pyrohov Ievgen Meniailov Tetyana Chumachenko |
| author_facet | Dmytro Chumachenko Pavlo Pyrohov Ievgen Meniailov Tetyana Chumachenko |
| author_sort | Dmytro Chumachenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of March 2022, almost 500 million cases have been reported worldwide. More than 6.2 million people died. The war that Russia launched for no reason on the territory of Ukraine is not only the cause of the death of thousands of people and the destruction of dozens of cities but also a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The military invasion also affected the public health sector. The impossibility of providing medical care, non-compliance with sanitary conditions in areas where active hostilities are occurring, high population density during the evacuation, and other factors contribute to a new stage in the spread of COVID-19 in Ukraine. Building an adequate model of the epidemic process will make it possible to assess the actual statistics of the incidence of COVID-19 and assess the risks and effectiveness of measures to curb the curse of the disease epidemic process. The article aims to develop a simulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic process in Ukraine and to study the results of an experimental study in war conditions. The research is targeted at the epidemic process of COVID-19 under military conditions. The subjects of the study are models and methods for modeling the epidemic process based on statistical machine learning methods. To achieve the study's aim, we used forecasting methods and built a model of the COVID-19 epidemic process based on the polynomial regression method. Because of the experiments, the accuracy of predicting new cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine for 30 days was 97,98%, and deaths of COVID-19 in Ukraine – was 99,87%. The model was applied to data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine for the first month of the war (02/24/22 - 03/25/22). The calculated predictive values showed a significant deviation from the registered statistics. Conclusions. This article describes experimental studies of implementing the COVID-19 epidemic process model in Ukraine based on the polynomial regression method. The constructed model was sufficiently accurate in deciding on anti-epidemic measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the selected area. The study of the model in data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine during the war made it possible to assess the completeness of the recorded statistics, identify the risks of the spread of COVID-19 in wartime, and determine the necessary measures to curb the epidemic curse of the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine. The investigation of the experimental study results shows a significant decrease in the registration of the COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine. An analysis of the situation showed difficulty in accessing medical care, a reduction in diagnosis and registration of new cases, and the war led to the intensification of the COVID-19 epidemic process. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T05:22:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e870904e4bc84ece85b788fa620e7c83 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1814-4225 2663-2012 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T05:22:13Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | National Aerospace University «Kharkiv Aviation Institute» |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Радіоелектронні і комп'ютерні системи |
| spelling | doaj.art-e870904e4bc84ece85b788fa620e7c832023-09-03T07:38:43ZengNational Aerospace University «Kharkiv Aviation Institute»Радіоелектронні і комп'ютерні системи1814-42252663-20122022-05-010262310.32620/reks.2022.2.011674Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation studyDmytro Chumachenko0Pavlo Pyrohov1Ievgen Meniailov2Tetyana Chumachenko3National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute", KharkivNational Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute", KharkivNational Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute", KharkivKharkiv National Medical University, KharkivThe COVID-19 pandemic has posed a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of March 2022, almost 500 million cases have been reported worldwide. More than 6.2 million people died. The war that Russia launched for no reason on the territory of Ukraine is not only the cause of the death of thousands of people and the destruction of dozens of cities but also a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The military invasion also affected the public health sector. The impossibility of providing medical care, non-compliance with sanitary conditions in areas where active hostilities are occurring, high population density during the evacuation, and other factors contribute to a new stage in the spread of COVID-19 in Ukraine. Building an adequate model of the epidemic process will make it possible to assess the actual statistics of the incidence of COVID-19 and assess the risks and effectiveness of measures to curb the curse of the disease epidemic process. The article aims to develop a simulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic process in Ukraine and to study the results of an experimental study in war conditions. The research is targeted at the epidemic process of COVID-19 under military conditions. The subjects of the study are models and methods for modeling the epidemic process based on statistical machine learning methods. To achieve the study's aim, we used forecasting methods and built a model of the COVID-19 epidemic process based on the polynomial regression method. Because of the experiments, the accuracy of predicting new cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine for 30 days was 97,98%, and deaths of COVID-19 in Ukraine – was 99,87%. The model was applied to data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine for the first month of the war (02/24/22 - 03/25/22). The calculated predictive values showed a significant deviation from the registered statistics. Conclusions. This article describes experimental studies of implementing the COVID-19 epidemic process model in Ukraine based on the polynomial regression method. The constructed model was sufficiently accurate in deciding on anti-epidemic measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the selected area. The study of the model in data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine during the war made it possible to assess the completeness of the recorded statistics, identify the risks of the spread of COVID-19 in wartime, and determine the necessary measures to curb the epidemic curse of the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine. The investigation of the experimental study results shows a significant decrease in the registration of the COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine. An analysis of the situation showed difficulty in accessing medical care, a reduction in diagnosis and registration of new cases, and the war led to the intensification of the COVID-19 epidemic process.http://nti.khai.edu/ojs/index.php/reks/article/view/1697epidemic modelepidemic processepidemic simulationsimulationcovid-19polynomial regressionwar |
| spellingShingle | Dmytro Chumachenko Pavlo Pyrohov Ievgen Meniailov Tetyana Chumachenko Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study Радіоелектронні і комп'ютерні системи epidemic model epidemic process epidemic simulation simulation covid-19 polynomial regression war |
| title | Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study |
| title_full | Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study |
| title_fullStr | Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study |
| title_short | Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study |
| title_sort | impact of war on covid 19 pandemic in ukraine the simulation study |
| topic | epidemic model epidemic process epidemic simulation simulation covid-19 polynomial regression war |
| url | http://nti.khai.edu/ojs/index.php/reks/article/view/1697 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dmytrochumachenko impactofwaroncovid19pandemicinukrainethesimulationstudy AT pavlopyrohov impactofwaroncovid19pandemicinukrainethesimulationstudy AT ievgenmeniailov impactofwaroncovid19pandemicinukrainethesimulationstudy AT tetyanachumachenko impactofwaroncovid19pandemicinukrainethesimulationstudy |