Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030
The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence perio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Earthquake Research Advances |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772467022000689 |
| _version_ | 1797895512654872576 |
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| author | Zhigang Shao Yanqiang Wu Lingyun Ji Faqi Diao Fuqiang Shi Yujiang Li Feng Long Hui Zhang Wuxing Wang Wenxin Wei Peng Wang Xiaoxia Liu Qi Liu Zhengyang Pan Xiaofei Yin Yue Liu Wei Feng Zhenyu Zou Jia Cheng Renqi Lu Yueren Xu Xi Li |
| author_facet | Zhigang Shao Yanqiang Wu Lingyun Ji Faqi Diao Fuqiang Shi Yujiang Li Feng Long Hui Zhang Wuxing Wang Wenxin Wei Peng Wang Xiaoxia Liu Qi Liu Zhengyang Pan Xiaofei Yin Yue Liu Wei Feng Zhenyu Zou Jia Cheng Renqi Lu Yueren Xu Xi Li |
| author_sort | Zhigang Shao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:28:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e8763eda0440432492abccc351b3ee78 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2772-4670 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T07:28:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earthquake Research Advances |
| spelling | doaj.art-e8763eda0440432492abccc351b3ee782023-02-24T04:32:03ZengKeAi Communications Co. Ltd.Earthquake Research Advances2772-46702023-01-0131100177Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030Zhigang Shao0Yanqiang Wu1Lingyun Ji2Faqi Diao3Fuqiang Shi4Yujiang Li5Feng Long6Hui Zhang7Wuxing Wang8Wenxin Wei9Peng Wang10Xiaoxia Liu11Qi Liu12Zhengyang Pan13Xiaofei Yin14Yue Liu15Wei Feng16Zhenyu Zou17Jia Cheng18Renqi Lu19Yueren Xu20Xi Li21Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaThe First Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Tianjin, 300180, ChinaThe Second Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration, Xi'an, 710054, ChinaChina University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan, 430074, ChinaShaanxi Earthquake Agency, Xi'an, 710068, ChinaNational Institute of Natural Hazards, Beijing, 100085, ChinaSichuan Earthquake Administration, Chengdu, 610044, ChinaGansu Earthquake Agency, Lanzhou, 730000, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, China; Corresponding author.Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaNational Institute of Natural Hazards, Beijing, 100085, ChinaInstitute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, 100029, ChinaInstitute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting, Beijing, 100036, ChinaYunnan University, Kunming, 650091, ChinaThe long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772467022000689Long-term earthquake predictionChinese mainlandActive tectonic block |
| spellingShingle | Zhigang Shao Yanqiang Wu Lingyun Ji Faqi Diao Fuqiang Shi Yujiang Li Feng Long Hui Zhang Wuxing Wang Wenxin Wei Peng Wang Xiaoxia Liu Qi Liu Zhengyang Pan Xiaofei Yin Yue Liu Wei Feng Zhenyu Zou Jia Cheng Renqi Lu Yueren Xu Xi Li Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 Earthquake Research Advances Long-term earthquake prediction Chinese mainland Active tectonic block |
| title | Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 |
| title_full | Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 |
| title_short | Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 |
| title_sort | assessment of strong earthquake risk in the chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030 |
| topic | Long-term earthquake prediction Chinese mainland Active tectonic block |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772467022000689 |
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