Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer
Abstract Background Information on the associations between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis survival time in esophageal cancer could assist in planning health services but can be difficult to obtain using established study designs. We postulated that, with a large data set, using es...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2020-04-01
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| Series: | BMC Medical Research Methodology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12874-020-00957-5 |
| _version_ | 1811214673250353152 |
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| author | Paul P. Fahey Andrew Page Glenn Stone Thomas Astell-Burt |
| author_facet | Paul P. Fahey Andrew Page Glenn Stone Thomas Astell-Burt |
| author_sort | Paul P. Fahey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Information on the associations between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis survival time in esophageal cancer could assist in planning health services but can be difficult to obtain using established study designs. We postulated that, with a large data set, using estimated probability for a behavior as a predictor of survival times could provide useful insight as to the impact of actual behavior. Methods Data from a national health survey and logistic regression were used to calculate the probability of selected health behaviors from participant’s demographic characteristics for each esophageal cancer case within a large cancer registry data base. The associations between survival time and the probability of the health behaviors were investigated using Cox regression. Results Observed associations include: a 0.1 increase in the probability of smoking 1 year prior to diagnosis was detrimental to survival (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.19,1.23); a 0.1 increase in the probability of hazardous alcohol consumption 10 years prior to diagnosis was associated with decreased survival in squamous cell cancer (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.56) but not adenocarcinoma (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.94,1.25); a 0.1 increase in the probability of physical activity outside the workplace is protective (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.81,0.84). Conclusions We conclude that probability for health behavior estimated from demographic characteristics can provide an initial assessment of the association between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis health outcomes, allowing some sharing of information across otherwise unrelated data collections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:08:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e87cf2992b8e4ae19df7697364270800 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2288 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T06:08:54Z |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medical Research Methodology |
| spelling | doaj.art-e87cf2992b8e4ae19df76973642708002022-12-22T03:44:47ZengBMCBMC Medical Research Methodology1471-22882020-04-012011910.1186/s12874-020-00957-5Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancerPaul P. Fahey0Andrew Page1Glenn Stone2Thomas Astell-Burt3School of Health Sciences, Western Sydney UniversityTranslational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney UniversitySchool of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney UniversityPopulation Wellbeing and Environment Research Lab (PowerLab), School of Health and Society, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of WollongongAbstract Background Information on the associations between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis survival time in esophageal cancer could assist in planning health services but can be difficult to obtain using established study designs. We postulated that, with a large data set, using estimated probability for a behavior as a predictor of survival times could provide useful insight as to the impact of actual behavior. Methods Data from a national health survey and logistic regression were used to calculate the probability of selected health behaviors from participant’s demographic characteristics for each esophageal cancer case within a large cancer registry data base. The associations between survival time and the probability of the health behaviors were investigated using Cox regression. Results Observed associations include: a 0.1 increase in the probability of smoking 1 year prior to diagnosis was detrimental to survival (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% CI 1.19,1.23); a 0.1 increase in the probability of hazardous alcohol consumption 10 years prior to diagnosis was associated with decreased survival in squamous cell cancer (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.07, 1.56) but not adenocarcinoma (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.94,1.25); a 0.1 increase in the probability of physical activity outside the workplace is protective (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.81,0.84). Conclusions We conclude that probability for health behavior estimated from demographic characteristics can provide an initial assessment of the association between pre-diagnosis health behavior and post-diagnosis health outcomes, allowing some sharing of information across otherwise unrelated data collections.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12874-020-00957-5Esophageal cancerSurvivalHealth behaviorTobaccoAlcoholPhysical activity |
| spellingShingle | Paul P. Fahey Andrew Page Glenn Stone Thomas Astell-Burt Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer BMC Medical Research Methodology Esophageal cancer Survival Health behavior Tobacco Alcohol Physical activity |
| title | Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer |
| title_full | Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer |
| title_fullStr | Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer |
| title_short | Using estimated probability of pre-diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time: an example in esophageal cancer |
| title_sort | using estimated probability of pre diagnosis behavior as a predictor of cancer survival time an example in esophageal cancer |
| topic | Esophageal cancer Survival Health behavior Tobacco Alcohol Physical activity |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12874-020-00957-5 |
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