A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry
The aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. We use the production index of the water transport industry as the referenc...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521223000494 |
| _version_ | 1797564985556074496 |
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| author | Janghan Kwon Sunghwa Park Taeil Kim Hanna Kim |
| author_facet | Janghan Kwon Sunghwa Park Taeil Kim Hanna Kim |
| author_sort | Janghan Kwon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. We use the production index of the water transport industry as the reference variable and compute the coincident indicator based on the common component of eight economic indicators. The analysis shows that the Korean shipping industry went through four business cycles during the sample period from 2007M1 to 2021M5. The leading indicator provides early signals of turning points in business cycles with a high correlation. The results suggest that the business cycle indicators present in this study may be useful diagnostic tools for understanding the timely and frequent economic state of the Korean shipping industry and its likely development in the near future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:05:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e88ee27ee58c48ae94978872e779bc91 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2092-5212 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:05:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics |
| spelling | doaj.art-e88ee27ee58c48ae94978872e779bc912023-11-20T04:11:35ZengElsevierAsian Journal of Shipping and Logistics2092-52122023-12-013941625A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industryJanghan Kwon0Sunghwa Park1Taeil Kim2Hanna Kim3Ocean Economy Strategy Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan, South KoreaDepartment of International Trade, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, South Korea; Correspondence to: Department of International Trade, College of Business Administration, Gyeongsang National University, 501, Jinju-daero, Jinju-si, Gyeongsangnam-do 52828, South Korea.Maritime Policy Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan, South KoreaMaritime Policy Research Department, Korea Maritime Institute, Busan, South KoreaThe aim of this study is to construct monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the shipping industry in Korea. The coincident and the leading indicators are computed using the generalized dynamic factor model. We use the production index of the water transport industry as the reference variable and compute the coincident indicator based on the common component of eight economic indicators. The analysis shows that the Korean shipping industry went through four business cycles during the sample period from 2007M1 to 2021M5. The leading indicator provides early signals of turning points in business cycles with a high correlation. The results suggest that the business cycle indicators present in this study may be useful diagnostic tools for understanding the timely and frequent economic state of the Korean shipping industry and its likely development in the near future.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521223000494Business cycleCoincident indicatorComposite indicatorCyclical fluctuation characteristicsCyclical turning pointsGeneralized dynamic factor model |
| spellingShingle | Janghan Kwon Sunghwa Park Taeil Kim Hanna Kim A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics Business cycle Coincident indicator Composite indicator Cyclical fluctuation characteristics Cyclical turning points Generalized dynamic factor model |
| title | A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry |
| title_full | A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry |
| title_fullStr | A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry |
| title_full_unstemmed | A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry |
| title_short | A novel business cycle indicator of the Korean shipping industry |
| title_sort | novel business cycle indicator of the korean shipping industry |
| topic | Business cycle Coincident indicator Composite indicator Cyclical fluctuation characteristics Cyclical turning points Generalized dynamic factor model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2092521223000494 |
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