Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change
Apple valsa canker (AVC), caused by <i>Valsa mali</i>, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/11/1126 |
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| author | Wei Xu Hongyun Sun Jingwei Jin Jimin Cheng |
| author_facet | Wei Xu Hongyun Sun Jingwei Jin Jimin Cheng |
| author_sort | Wei Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Apple valsa canker (AVC), caused by <i>Valsa mali</i>, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially on a relatively large scale. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt 3.4.1, Princeton, NJ, USA) to predict the distribution of <i>V. mali</i> using climate factors, topographic factors, and soil factors under current and future climate scenarios. We measured the area of suitable habitat, change ratio of the suitable habitat area, increase and decrease maps under climate change, direction and distance of range shifts from the present to the end of the 21st century, and the contribution of environmental variables. The results showed that the area of suitable habitat is currently 183.46 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> in China, among which 27.54% is moderately suitable habitat (MSH) and 13.13% is highly suitable habitat (HSH). Compared with current distribution, the area of MSH and HSH increases in future and the change ratio are positive. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3–70 is considered the optimum climate scenario for <i>V. mali</i>. The suitability of <i>V. mali</i> increased mainly in Northwest, North, and Northeast China. <i>V. mali</i> will shift to the northwest with climate change. The shift distance optimistically increased from the SSP1–26 to the SSP5–85, with the biggest shift distance of 758.44 km in the 2090s under the SSP5–85 scenario. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was the most critical climate factor affecting the distribution of the pathogen, and topographic factors played a more important role than soil factors. This study demonstrates that the potential distribution of<i> V. mali</i> is vitally affected by climate change and provides a method for large–scale research on the distribution of pathogens. |
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| language | English |
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| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-e922639c2d2e4d71a2c92db6beae4f982023-11-20T18:12:31ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072020-10-011111112610.3390/f11111126Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate ChangeWei Xu0Hongyun Sun1Jingwei Jin2Jimin Cheng3Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, ChinaCollege of Plant Protection, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University, Yangling 712100, ChinaInstitute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, ChinaInstitute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling 712100, ChinaApple valsa canker (AVC), caused by <i>Valsa mali</i>, is a serious wood disease of apple trees. The pathogen decays the barks and branches of trees and ruins entire orchards under severe conditions. However, studies have rarely focused on the suitable habitat of the pathogen, especially on a relatively large scale. In this study, we applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt 3.4.1, Princeton, NJ, USA) to predict the distribution of <i>V. mali</i> using climate factors, topographic factors, and soil factors under current and future climate scenarios. We measured the area of suitable habitat, change ratio of the suitable habitat area, increase and decrease maps under climate change, direction and distance of range shifts from the present to the end of the 21st century, and the contribution of environmental variables. The results showed that the area of suitable habitat is currently 183.46 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup> in China, among which 27.54% is moderately suitable habitat (MSH) and 13.13% is highly suitable habitat (HSH). Compared with current distribution, the area of MSH and HSH increases in future and the change ratio are positive. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3–70 is considered the optimum climate scenario for <i>V. mali</i>. The suitability of <i>V. mali</i> increased mainly in Northwest, North, and Northeast China. <i>V. mali</i> will shift to the northwest with climate change. The shift distance optimistically increased from the SSP1–26 to the SSP5–85, with the biggest shift distance of 758.44 km in the 2090s under the SSP5–85 scenario. Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) was the most critical climate factor affecting the distribution of the pathogen, and topographic factors played a more important role than soil factors. This study demonstrates that the potential distribution of<i> V. mali</i> is vitally affected by climate change and provides a method for large–scale research on the distribution of pathogens.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/11/1126apple valsa cankerpotential distributionValsa maliMaxEntrange shiftsclimate scenario |
| spellingShingle | Wei Xu Hongyun Sun Jingwei Jin Jimin Cheng Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change Forests apple valsa canker potential distribution Valsa mali MaxEnt range shifts climate scenario |
| title | Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change |
| title_full | Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change |
| title_short | Predicting the Potential Distribution of Apple Canker Pathogen (<i>Valsa mali</i>) in China under Climate Change |
| title_sort | predicting the potential distribution of apple canker pathogen i valsa mali i in china under climate change |
| topic | apple valsa canker potential distribution Valsa mali MaxEnt range shifts climate scenario |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/11/11/1126 |
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