Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database
Objective To establish an efficient nomogram model to predict short-term survival in ICU patients with aplastic anemia (AA).Methods The data of AA patients in the MIMIC-IV database were obtained and randomly assigned to the training set and testing set in a ratio of 7:3. Independent prognosis factor...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Hematology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/16078454.2024.2339778 |
| _version_ | 1826936813749534720 |
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| author | Yan Tu Jingcheng Zhang Mingzhe Zhao Fang He |
| author_facet | Yan Tu Jingcheng Zhang Mingzhe Zhao Fang He |
| author_sort | Yan Tu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective To establish an efficient nomogram model to predict short-term survival in ICU patients with aplastic anemia (AA).Methods The data of AA patients in the MIMIC-IV database were obtained and randomly assigned to the training set and testing set in a ratio of 7:3. Independent prognosis factors were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The variance inflation factor was calculated to detect the correlation between variables. A nomogram model was built based on independent prognostic factors and risk scores for factors were generated. Model performance was tested using C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan-Meier curve.Results A total of 1,963 AA patients were included. A nomogram model with 7 variables was built, including SAPS II, chronic pulmonary obstructive disease, body temperature, red cell distribution width, saturation of peripheral oxygen, age and mechanical ventilation. The C-indexes in the training set and testing set were 0.642 and 0.643 respectively, indicating certain accuracy of the model. ROC curve showed favorable classification performance of nomogram. The calibration curve reflected that its probabilistic prediction was reliable. DCA revealed good clinical practicability of the model. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed that receiving mechanical ventilation could improve the survival status of AA patients in the short term but did not in the later period.Conclusion The nomogram model of the short-term survival rate of AA patients was built based on clinical characteristics, and early mechanical ventilation could help improve the short-term survival rate of patients. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e933a97a3e1643ba8cc8c47c76fcbe33 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1607-8454 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-02-17T18:28:12Z |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hematology |
| spelling | doaj.art-e933a97a3e1643ba8cc8c47c76fcbe332024-12-12T15:08:53ZengTaylor & Francis GroupHematology1607-84542024-12-0129110.1080/16078454.2024.2339778Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV databaseYan Tu0Jingcheng Zhang1Mingzhe Zhao2Fang He3Department of Hematology, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Hematology, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Hematology, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Hematology, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua, People’s Republic of ChinaObjective To establish an efficient nomogram model to predict short-term survival in ICU patients with aplastic anemia (AA).Methods The data of AA patients in the MIMIC-IV database were obtained and randomly assigned to the training set and testing set in a ratio of 7:3. Independent prognosis factors were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The variance inflation factor was calculated to detect the correlation between variables. A nomogram model was built based on independent prognostic factors and risk scores for factors were generated. Model performance was tested using C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and Kaplan-Meier curve.Results A total of 1,963 AA patients were included. A nomogram model with 7 variables was built, including SAPS II, chronic pulmonary obstructive disease, body temperature, red cell distribution width, saturation of peripheral oxygen, age and mechanical ventilation. The C-indexes in the training set and testing set were 0.642 and 0.643 respectively, indicating certain accuracy of the model. ROC curve showed favorable classification performance of nomogram. The calibration curve reflected that its probabilistic prediction was reliable. DCA revealed good clinical practicability of the model. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier curve showed that receiving mechanical ventilation could improve the survival status of AA patients in the short term but did not in the later period.Conclusion The nomogram model of the short-term survival rate of AA patients was built based on clinical characteristics, and early mechanical ventilation could help improve the short-term survival rate of patients.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/16078454.2024.2339778MIMIC-IVaplastic anemiashort-term survival ratemechanical ventilation |
| spellingShingle | Yan Tu Jingcheng Zhang Mingzhe Zhao Fang He Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database Hematology MIMIC-IV aplastic anemia short-term survival rate mechanical ventilation |
| title | Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database |
| title_full | Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database |
| title_fullStr | Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database |
| title_short | Nomogram establishment for short-term survival prediction in ICU patients with aplastic anemia based on the MIMIC-IV database |
| title_sort | nomogram establishment for short term survival prediction in icu patients with aplastic anemia based on the mimic iv database |
| topic | MIMIC-IV aplastic anemia short-term survival rate mechanical ventilation |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/16078454.2024.2339778 |
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