Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach
Climate continues to pose significant challenges to human existence. Notably, in the past decade, the focus on the role of climate on conflict and social unrest has gained traction in academic, development, and policy communities. This article examines the link between climate variability and confli...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.849757/full |
| _version_ | 1828098639386378240 |
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| author | Grazia Pacillo Daniel Kangogo Ignacio Madurga-Lopez Victor Villa Anna Belli Peter Läderach |
| author_facet | Grazia Pacillo Daniel Kangogo Ignacio Madurga-Lopez Victor Villa Anna Belli Peter Läderach |
| author_sort | Grazia Pacillo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate continues to pose significant challenges to human existence. Notably, in the past decade, the focus on the role of climate on conflict and social unrest has gained traction in academic, development, and policy communities. This article examines the link between climate variability and conflict in Mali. It advances the argument that climate is a threat multiplier, in other words, climate indirectly affects conflict occurrence through numerous pathways. We take the view that maize production and household food security status sequentially mediate the relationship between climate variability and the different conflict types. First, we provide a brief review of the climate conflict pathways in Mali. Second, we employ the path analysis within the structural equation modeling technique to test the hypothesized pathways and answer the research questions. We use the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), a nationally representative data from Mali merged with time and location-specific climate and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data. Results show that an increase in positive temperature anomalies when sequentially mediated by maize production and household food security status, increase the occurrence of the different conflict types. The results are robust to the use of negative precipitation anomalies (tendency toward less precipitation compared to the historical norm). Our findings highlight two key messages, first, the crucial role of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and interventions on influencing household food security status and thus reducing conflict occurrence. Second, that efforts to build peace and security should account for the role of climate in exacerbating the root causes of conflict. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T08:05:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e938199362da4580b061a3ecd1e2ddf9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T08:05:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj.art-e938199362da4580b061a3ecd1e2ddf92022-12-22T04:35:35ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532022-11-01410.3389/fclim.2022.849757849757Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approachGrazia Pacillo0Daniel Kangogo1Ignacio Madurga-Lopez2Victor Villa3Anna Belli4Peter Läderach5Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Rome, ItalyAlliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Rome, ItalyAlliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Cali, ColombiaAlliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Dakar, SenegalAlliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Nairobi, KenyaAlliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Dakar, SenegalClimate continues to pose significant challenges to human existence. Notably, in the past decade, the focus on the role of climate on conflict and social unrest has gained traction in academic, development, and policy communities. This article examines the link between climate variability and conflict in Mali. It advances the argument that climate is a threat multiplier, in other words, climate indirectly affects conflict occurrence through numerous pathways. We take the view that maize production and household food security status sequentially mediate the relationship between climate variability and the different conflict types. First, we provide a brief review of the climate conflict pathways in Mali. Second, we employ the path analysis within the structural equation modeling technique to test the hypothesized pathways and answer the research questions. We use the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), a nationally representative data from Mali merged with time and location-specific climate and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data. Results show that an increase in positive temperature anomalies when sequentially mediated by maize production and household food security status, increase the occurrence of the different conflict types. The results are robust to the use of negative precipitation anomalies (tendency toward less precipitation compared to the historical norm). Our findings highlight two key messages, first, the crucial role of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and interventions on influencing household food security status and thus reducing conflict occurrence. Second, that efforts to build peace and security should account for the role of climate in exacerbating the root causes of conflict.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.849757/fullclimate securityconflictimpact pathwaysfood insecurityMalimediation analysis |
| spellingShingle | Grazia Pacillo Daniel Kangogo Ignacio Madurga-Lopez Victor Villa Anna Belli Peter Läderach Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach Frontiers in Climate climate security conflict impact pathways food insecurity Mali mediation analysis |
| title | Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach |
| title_full | Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach |
| title_fullStr | Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach |
| title_short | Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach |
| title_sort | is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in mali a climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach |
| topic | climate security conflict impact pathways food insecurity Mali mediation analysis |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.849757/full |
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