The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections
Under the influence of climate change, the hydrological processes of glaciers have undergone significant changes, a fact which is seriously affecting agricultural production in the downstream region of the Tianshan Mountains, China. In order to explore the intrinsic relationship between climate chan...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/6/1314 |
| _version_ | 1797442808710168576 |
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| author | Jing Liu Aihua Long Xiaoya Deng Zhenliang Yin Mingjiang Deng Qiang An Xinchen Gu Shuoyang Li Guihua Liu |
| author_facet | Jing Liu Aihua Long Xiaoya Deng Zhenliang Yin Mingjiang Deng Qiang An Xinchen Gu Shuoyang Li Guihua Liu |
| author_sort | Jing Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Under the influence of climate change, the hydrological processes of glaciers have undergone significant changes, a fact which is seriously affecting agricultural production in the downstream region of the Tianshan Mountains, China. In order to explore the intrinsic relationship between climate change and hydrological elements, we proposed an “evaluation-driving-prediction” system to study it. First, we constructed a glacier-enhanced soil and water assessment tool model (GE-SWAT) and used a two-stage calibration method to optimize the model parameters. Next, a scenario analysis was used to evaluate the driving factors of historical runoff changes. Finally, we projected future runoff changes using bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) outputs. The results of the case study on the Jinghe River Basin in the Tianshan Mountains show that from 1963 to 2016, total runoff increased by 13.3%, 17.7% of which was due to increasing precipitation and 1.8% of which was negated by rising temperatures. The glacier runoff increased by 14.5%, mainly due to the rising temperatures. A 3.4% reduction in snowmelt was caused by a lower snowfall/precipitation ratio, which significantly reduced the snowfall from June to August. The RCM projection indicated that the warming and humidification phenomenon in the study area will continue at least through to the mid-21st century. A consistent increase in glacier runoff and total runoff is projected, but the contribution rate of the glacier runoff will have little to no change under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Our research demonstrates the simulation performance of the GE-SWAT model in a basin with moderate glacier cover. This method is shown to be efficient in quantifying the impact of climate change on glacier hydrological processes and predicting future streamflow changes, providing a good research reference for similar regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:47:26Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e942622615bc4bfea79c3125cbeebd51 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T12:47:26Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj.art-e942622615bc4bfea79c3125cbeebd512023-11-30T22:10:58ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922022-03-01146131410.3390/rs14061314The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and ProjectionsJing Liu0Aihua Long1Xiaoya Deng2Zhenliang Yin3Mingjiang Deng4Qiang An5Xinchen Gu6Shuoyang Li7Guihua Liu8State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaKey Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, ChinaKey Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, ChinaUnder the influence of climate change, the hydrological processes of glaciers have undergone significant changes, a fact which is seriously affecting agricultural production in the downstream region of the Tianshan Mountains, China. In order to explore the intrinsic relationship between climate change and hydrological elements, we proposed an “evaluation-driving-prediction” system to study it. First, we constructed a glacier-enhanced soil and water assessment tool model (GE-SWAT) and used a two-stage calibration method to optimize the model parameters. Next, a scenario analysis was used to evaluate the driving factors of historical runoff changes. Finally, we projected future runoff changes using bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) outputs. The results of the case study on the Jinghe River Basin in the Tianshan Mountains show that from 1963 to 2016, total runoff increased by 13.3%, 17.7% of which was due to increasing precipitation and 1.8% of which was negated by rising temperatures. The glacier runoff increased by 14.5%, mainly due to the rising temperatures. A 3.4% reduction in snowmelt was caused by a lower snowfall/precipitation ratio, which significantly reduced the snowfall from June to August. The RCM projection indicated that the warming and humidification phenomenon in the study area will continue at least through to the mid-21st century. A consistent increase in glacier runoff and total runoff is projected, but the contribution rate of the glacier runoff will have little to no change under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Our research demonstrates the simulation performance of the GE-SWAT model in a basin with moderate glacier cover. This method is shown to be efficient in quantifying the impact of climate change on glacier hydrological processes and predicting future streamflow changes, providing a good research reference for similar regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/6/1314climate changeglacier-enhanced soil and water assessment tool modelstreamflowglacier meltregional climate model |
| spellingShingle | Jing Liu Aihua Long Xiaoya Deng Zhenliang Yin Mingjiang Deng Qiang An Xinchen Gu Shuoyang Li Guihua Liu The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections Remote Sensing climate change glacier-enhanced soil and water assessment tool model streamflow glacier melt regional climate model |
| title | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections |
| title_full | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections |
| title_short | The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes of the Glacierized Watershed and Projections |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the glacierized watershed and projections |
| topic | climate change glacier-enhanced soil and water assessment tool model streamflow glacier melt regional climate model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/6/1314 |
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