The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model
Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report lists sea‐level rise as one of the major future climate challenges. Based on pre‐industrial and historical‐and‐future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we analyze the projected sea‐level rise in t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002868 |
| _version_ | 1818157220064395264 |
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| author | Dapeng Li Ping Chang Stephen G. Yeager Gokhan Danabasoglu Frederic S. Castruccio Justin Small Hong Wang Qiuying Zhang Abishek Gopal |
| author_facet | Dapeng Li Ping Chang Stephen G. Yeager Gokhan Danabasoglu Frederic S. Castruccio Justin Small Hong Wang Qiuying Zhang Abishek Gopal |
| author_sort | Dapeng Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report lists sea‐level rise as one of the major future climate challenges. Based on pre‐industrial and historical‐and‐future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we analyze the projected sea‐level rise in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean with two sets of simulations at different horizontal resolutions. Compared with observations, the low resolution (LR) model simulated Gulf Stream does not separate from the shore but flows northward along the entire coast, causing large biases in regional dynamic sea level (DSL). The high resolution (HR) model improves the Gulf Stream representation and reduces biases in regional DSL. Under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario, LR projects a DSL trend of 1.5–2 mm/yr along the northeast continental shelf (north of 40° N), which is 2–3 times the trend projected by HR. Along the southeast shelf (south of 35° N), HR projects a DSL trend of 0.5–1 mm/yr while the DSL trend in LR is statistically insignificant. The different spatial patterns of DSL changes are attributable to the different Gulf Stream reductions in response to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Due to its poor representation of the Gulf Stream, LR projects larger (smaller) current decreases along the north (south) east continental slope compared to HR. This leads to larger (smaller) trends of DSL rise along the north (south) east shelf in LR than in HR. The results of this study suggest that the better resolved ocean circulations in HR can have significant impacts on regional DSL simulations and projections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:10:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e96adeb11bca4fbca18dcf2e8d962085 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1942-2466 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T15:10:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-e96adeb11bca4fbca18dcf2e8d9620852022-12-22T01:00:46ZengAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU)Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems1942-24662022-05-01145n/an/a10.1029/2021MS002868The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System ModelDapeng Li0Ping Chang1Stephen G. Yeager2Gokhan Danabasoglu3Frederic S. Castruccio4Justin Small5Hong Wang6Qiuying Zhang7Abishek Gopal8Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USADepartment of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USANational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USALaboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao ChinaDepartment of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USADepartment of Oceanography Texas A&M University College Station TX USAAbstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report lists sea‐level rise as one of the major future climate challenges. Based on pre‐industrial and historical‐and‐future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we analyze the projected sea‐level rise in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean with two sets of simulations at different horizontal resolutions. Compared with observations, the low resolution (LR) model simulated Gulf Stream does not separate from the shore but flows northward along the entire coast, causing large biases in regional dynamic sea level (DSL). The high resolution (HR) model improves the Gulf Stream representation and reduces biases in regional DSL. Under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario, LR projects a DSL trend of 1.5–2 mm/yr along the northeast continental shelf (north of 40° N), which is 2–3 times the trend projected by HR. Along the southeast shelf (south of 35° N), HR projects a DSL trend of 0.5–1 mm/yr while the DSL trend in LR is statistically insignificant. The different spatial patterns of DSL changes are attributable to the different Gulf Stream reductions in response to a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Due to its poor representation of the Gulf Stream, LR projects larger (smaller) current decreases along the north (south) east continental slope compared to HR. This leads to larger (smaller) trends of DSL rise along the north (south) east shelf in LR than in HR. The results of this study suggest that the better resolved ocean circulations in HR can have significant impacts on regional DSL simulations and projections.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002868regional sea level changesCommunity Earth System Modelocean circulationglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Dapeng Li Ping Chang Stephen G. Yeager Gokhan Danabasoglu Frederic S. Castruccio Justin Small Hong Wang Qiuying Zhang Abishek Gopal The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems regional sea level changes Community Earth System Model ocean circulation global warming |
| title | The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model |
| title_full | The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model |
| title_short | The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Projected Sea‐Level Rise Along US East Continental Shelf With the Community Earth System Model |
| title_sort | impact of horizontal resolution on projected sea level rise along us east continental shelf with the community earth system model |
| topic | regional sea level changes Community Earth System Model ocean circulation global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002868 |
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