A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas
Abstract Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation. However, little is known about the changes in exposure (for example, population and urban land) to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization, and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2021-12-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Disaster Risk Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00385-z |
| _version_ | 1819097905223434240 |
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| author | Chunyang He Qingxu Huang Xuemei Bai Derek T. Robinson Peijun Shi Yinyin Dou Bo Zhao Jubo Yan Qiang Zhang Fangjin Xu James Daniell |
| author_facet | Chunyang He Qingxu Huang Xuemei Bai Derek T. Robinson Peijun Shi Yinyin Dou Bo Zhao Jubo Yan Qiang Zhang Fangjin Xu James Daniell |
| author_sort | Chunyang He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation. However, little is known about the changes in exposure (for example, population and urban land) to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization, and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas. We present a global analysis of the changes in population size and urban land area in earthquake-prone areas from 1990 to 2015, and their impacts on earthquake-related fatalities. We found that more than two thirds of population growth (or 70% of total population in 2015) and nearly three quarters of earthquake-related deaths (or 307,918 deaths) in global earthquake-prone areas occurred in developing countries with an urbanization ratio (percentage of urban population to total population) between 20 and 60%. Holding other factors constant, population size was significantly and positively associated with earthquake fatalities, while the area of urban land was negatively related. The results suggest that fatalities increase for areas where the urbanization ratio is low, but after a ratio between 40 and 50% occurs, earthquake fatalities decline. This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios and highlights the need for further investigation. Our quantitative analysis is extended into the future using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to reveal that by 2050, more than 50% of the population increase in global earthquake-prone areas will take place in a few developing countries (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. To reduce earthquake-induced fatalities, enhanced resilience of buildings and urban infrastructure generally in these few countries should be a priority. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T00:22:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-e98f627b731348e58edd8aa208ebbb40 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2095-0055 2192-6395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T00:22:31Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Disaster Risk Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-e98f627b731348e58edd8aa208ebbb402022-12-21T18:45:08ZengSpringerOpenInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Science2095-00552192-63952021-12-0112680582010.1007/s13753-021-00385-zA Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone AreasChunyang He0Qingxu Huang1Xuemei Bai2Derek T. Robinson3Peijun Shi4Yinyin Dou5Bo Zhao6Jubo Yan7Qiang Zhang8Fangjin Xu9James Daniell10State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityFenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityDepartment of Geography and Environmental Management, University of WaterlooState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Geography, University of WashingtonSchool of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological UniversityState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal UniversityGeophysical Institute and Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)Abstract Urbanization can be a challenge and an opportunity for earthquake risk mitigation. However, little is known about the changes in exposure (for example, population and urban land) to earthquakes in the context of global urbanization, and their impacts on fatalities in earthquake-prone areas. We present a global analysis of the changes in population size and urban land area in earthquake-prone areas from 1990 to 2015, and their impacts on earthquake-related fatalities. We found that more than two thirds of population growth (or 70% of total population in 2015) and nearly three quarters of earthquake-related deaths (or 307,918 deaths) in global earthquake-prone areas occurred in developing countries with an urbanization ratio (percentage of urban population to total population) between 20 and 60%. Holding other factors constant, population size was significantly and positively associated with earthquake fatalities, while the area of urban land was negatively related. The results suggest that fatalities increase for areas where the urbanization ratio is low, but after a ratio between 40 and 50% occurs, earthquake fatalities decline. This finding suggests that the resistance of building and infrastructure is greater in countries with higher urbanization ratios and highlights the need for further investigation. Our quantitative analysis is extended into the future using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to reveal that by 2050, more than 50% of the population increase in global earthquake-prone areas will take place in a few developing countries (Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. To reduce earthquake-induced fatalities, enhanced resilience of buildings and urban infrastructure generally in these few countries should be a priority.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00385-zEarthquake riskGlobal SouthRisk governanceUrbanization ratioUrban sustainability |
| spellingShingle | Chunyang He Qingxu Huang Xuemei Bai Derek T. Robinson Peijun Shi Yinyin Dou Bo Zhao Jubo Yan Qiang Zhang Fangjin Xu James Daniell A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas International Journal of Disaster Risk Science Earthquake risk Global South Risk governance Urbanization ratio Urban sustainability |
| title | A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas |
| title_full | A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas |
| title_fullStr | A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas |
| title_short | A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas |
| title_sort | global analysis of the relationship between urbanization and fatalities in earthquake prone areas |
| topic | Earthquake risk Global South Risk governance Urbanization ratio Urban sustainability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00385-z |
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