Climate change impact on streamflow in large-scale river basins: projections and their uncertainties sourced from GCMs and RCP scenarios
Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface model Soil Water – Atmosphere – Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute of Water Problems...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-06-01
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| Series: | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.proc-iahs.net/379/139/2018/piahs-379-139-2018.pdf |
| Summary: | Climate change impact on river runoff was investigated
within the framework of the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model
Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) using a physically-based land surface
model Soil Water – Atmosphere – Plants (SWAP) (developed in the Institute
of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences) and meteorological
projections (for 2006–2099) simulated by five General Circulation Models
(GCMs) (including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and
NorESM1-M) for each of four Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Eleven large-scale
river basins were used in this study. First of all, SWAP was calibrated and
validated against monthly values of measured river runoff with making use of
forcing data from the WATCH data set and all GCMs' projections were
bias-corrected to the WATCH. Then, for each basin, 20 projections of
possible changes in river runoff during the 21st century were simulated
by SWAP. Analysis of the obtained hydrological projections allowed us to
estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different GCMs and
RCP scenarios. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the
uncertainty of the projected river runoff is nearly twice larger than the
contribution of RCP scenarios. At the same time the contribution of GCMs
slightly decreases with time. |
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| ISSN: | 2199-8981 2199-899X |