Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia
In this study, the characteristics of systematic errors in subseasonal prediction for East Asia are investigated using an ensemble hindcast (1991–2010) produced by the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 is a global prediction system for the subseasonal-to-seasonal time s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1311 |
| _version_ | 1797515324461940736 |
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| author | Suryun Ham Yeomin Jeong |
| author_facet | Suryun Ham Yeomin Jeong |
| author_sort | Suryun Ham |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, the characteristics of systematic errors in subseasonal prediction for East Asia are investigated using an ensemble hindcast (1991–2010) produced by the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 is a global prediction system for the subseasonal-to-seasonal time scale, based on a fully coupled atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice model. To examine the fidelity of the system with respect to reproducing and forecasting phenomena, this study assesses the systematic biases in the global prediction model focusing on the prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which is a major driver of weather and climate variability in East Asia. To investigate the error characteristics of GloSea5, the hindcast period is analyzed by dividing it into two periods: 1991–2000 and 2001–2010. The main results show that the prediction skill for the EAWM with a lead time of 3 weeks is significantly decreased in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. To investigate the reason for the reduced EAWM prediction performance in the 2000s, the characteristics of the teleconnections relating to the polar and equatorial regions are examined. It is found that the simulated excessive weakening of the East Asian jet relating to the tropics and a failure in representing the Siberian high pressure relating to the Arctic are mainly responsible for the decreased EAWM prediction skill. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:44:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea0f27ccf8c247c8b65e2e9d15189de4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T06:44:51Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea0f27ccf8c247c8b65e2e9d15189de42023-11-22T17:25:36ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-10-011210131110.3390/atmos12101311Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East AsiaSuryun Ham0Yeomin Jeong1APEC Climate Center, Climate Services and Research Department, Busan 48058, KoreaAPEC Climate Center, Climate Services and Research Department, Busan 48058, KoreaIn this study, the characteristics of systematic errors in subseasonal prediction for East Asia are investigated using an ensemble hindcast (1991–2010) produced by the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5). GloSea5 is a global prediction system for the subseasonal-to-seasonal time scale, based on a fully coupled atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice model. To examine the fidelity of the system with respect to reproducing and forecasting phenomena, this study assesses the systematic biases in the global prediction model focusing on the prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), which is a major driver of weather and climate variability in East Asia. To investigate the error characteristics of GloSea5, the hindcast period is analyzed by dividing it into two periods: 1991–2000 and 2001–2010. The main results show that the prediction skill for the EAWM with a lead time of 3 weeks is significantly decreased in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. To investigate the reason for the reduced EAWM prediction performance in the 2000s, the characteristics of the teleconnections relating to the polar and equatorial regions are examined. It is found that the simulated excessive weakening of the East Asian jet relating to the tropics and a failure in representing the Siberian high pressure relating to the Arctic are mainly responsible for the decreased EAWM prediction skill.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1311East Asian winter monsoonsubseasonal predictionKMAGloSea5 |
| spellingShingle | Suryun Ham Yeomin Jeong Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia Atmosphere East Asian winter monsoon subseasonal prediction KMA GloSea5 |
| title | Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia |
| title_full | Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia |
| title_fullStr | Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia |
| title_short | Characteristics of Subseasonal Winter Prediction Skill Assessment of GloSea5 for East Asia |
| title_sort | characteristics of subseasonal winter prediction skill assessment of glosea5 for east asia |
| topic | East Asian winter monsoon subseasonal prediction KMA GloSea5 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1311 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT suryunham characteristicsofsubseasonalwinterpredictionskillassessmentofglosea5foreastasia AT yeominjeong characteristicsofsubseasonalwinterpredictionskillassessmentofglosea5foreastasia |