Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming
Heat stress harms human health, agriculture, the economy, and the environment more broadly. Exposure to heat stress is increasing with rising global temperatures. While most studies assessing future heat stress have focused on surface air temperature, compound extremes of heat and humidity are key d...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04 |
| _version_ | 1797747559129677824 |
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| author | Dawei Li Jiacan Yuan Robert E Kopp |
| author_facet | Dawei Li Jiacan Yuan Robert E Kopp |
| author_sort | Dawei Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Heat stress harms human health, agriculture, the economy, and the environment more broadly. Exposure to heat stress is increasing with rising global temperatures. While most studies assessing future heat stress have focused on surface air temperature, compound extremes of heat and humidity are key drivers of heat stress. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a large initial-condition ensemble of global climate model simulations to evaluate future changes in daily compound heat-humidity extremes as a function of increasing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT). The changing frequency of heat-humidity extremes, measured using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), is strongly related to GSAT and, conditional upon GSAT, nearly independent of forcing pathway. The historical ∼1°C of GSAT increase above preindustrial levels has already increased the population annually exposed to at least one day with WBGT exceeding 33°C (the reference safety value for humans at rest per the ISO-7243 standard) from 97 million to 275 million. Maintaining the current population distribution, this exposure is projected to increase to 508 million with 1.5°C of warming, 789 million with 2.0°C of warming, and 1.22 billion with 3.0°C of warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea1079042ea947828b491f2609f61193 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:52:18Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea1079042ea947828b491f2609f611932023-08-09T15:05:36ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115606400310.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warmingDawei Li0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4886-9173Jiacan Yuan1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3847-4490Robert E Kopp2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4016-9428Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University , New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America; Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University , New Brunswick, NJ, United States of AmericaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University , Piscataway, NJ, United States of AmericaDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University , Piscataway, NJ, United States of America; Rutgers Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University , New Brunswick, NJ, United States of AmericaHeat stress harms human health, agriculture, the economy, and the environment more broadly. Exposure to heat stress is increasing with rising global temperatures. While most studies assessing future heat stress have focused on surface air temperature, compound extremes of heat and humidity are key drivers of heat stress. Here, we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a large initial-condition ensemble of global climate model simulations to evaluate future changes in daily compound heat-humidity extremes as a function of increasing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT). The changing frequency of heat-humidity extremes, measured using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), is strongly related to GSAT and, conditional upon GSAT, nearly independent of forcing pathway. The historical ∼1°C of GSAT increase above preindustrial levels has already increased the population annually exposed to at least one day with WBGT exceeding 33°C (the reference safety value for humans at rest per the ISO-7243 standard) from 97 million to 275 million. Maintaining the current population distribution, this exposure is projected to increase to 508 million with 1.5°C of warming, 789 million with 2.0°C of warming, and 1.22 billion with 3.0°C of warming (similar to late-century warming projected based on current mitigation policies).https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04heat stresswet bulb globe temperatureheat-humidity extremespopulation exposure |
| spellingShingle | Dawei Li Jiacan Yuan Robert E Kopp Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming Environmental Research Letters heat stress wet bulb globe temperature heat-humidity extremes population exposure |
| title | Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming |
| title_full | Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming |
| title_fullStr | Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming |
| title_short | Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming |
| title_sort | escalating global exposure to compound heat humidity extremes with warming |
| topic | heat stress wet bulb globe temperature heat-humidity extremes population exposure |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04 |
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