Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal
Introduction: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Ordem dos Médicos
2020-06-01
|
| Series: | Acta Médica Portuguesa |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928 |
| _version_ | 1811242402462040064 |
|---|---|
| author | Paulo Jorge Nogueira Miguel de Araújo Nobre Paulo Jorge Nicola Cristina Furtado António Vaz Carneiro |
| author_facet | Paulo Jorge Nogueira Miguel de Araújo Nobre Paulo Jorge Nicola Cristina Furtado António Vaz Carneiro |
| author_sort | Paulo Jorge Nogueira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Introduction: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-causes mortality during the early COVID-19pandemic period.
Material and Methods: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.
Results: Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).
Discussion: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.
Conclusion: The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.
|
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T13:50:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea452dca5626440597cebeeac573a8ce |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0870-399X 1646-0758 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T13:50:44Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Ordem dos Médicos |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Acta Médica Portuguesa |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea452dca5626440597cebeeac573a8ce2022-12-22T03:30:32ZengOrdem dos MédicosActa Médica Portuguesa0870-399X1646-07582020-06-0133610.20344/amp.139285192Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from PortugalPaulo Jorge Nogueira0Miguel de Araújo Nobre1Paulo Jorge Nicola2Cristina Furtado3António Vaz Carneiro4Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Laboratory of Biomathematics. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Environmental Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon.Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Stomatological University Clinic. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon.Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Epidemiology Unit. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon.Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Environmental Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Epidemiology Unit. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge. Lisbon.Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Introduction: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-causes mortality during the early COVID-19pandemic period. Material and Methods: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period. Results: Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65). Discussion: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals. Conclusion: The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths. https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928CoronavirusCoronavirus InfectionsDisease OutbreaksMortalityPandemicsPortugal |
| spellingShingle | Paulo Jorge Nogueira Miguel de Araújo Nobre Paulo Jorge Nicola Cristina Furtado António Vaz Carneiro Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal Acta Médica Portuguesa Coronavirus Coronavirus Infections Disease Outbreaks Mortality Pandemics Portugal |
| title | Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal |
| title_full | Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal |
| title_fullStr | Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal |
| title_short | Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal |
| title_sort | excess mortality estimation during the covid 19 pandemic preliminary data from portugal |
| topic | Coronavirus Coronavirus Infections Disease Outbreaks Mortality Pandemics Portugal |
| url | https://www.actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT paulojorgenogueira excessmortalityestimationduringthecovid19pandemicpreliminarydatafromportugal AT migueldearaujonobre excessmortalityestimationduringthecovid19pandemicpreliminarydatafromportugal AT paulojorgenicola excessmortalityestimationduringthecovid19pandemicpreliminarydatafromportugal AT cristinafurtado excessmortalityestimationduringthecovid19pandemicpreliminarydatafromportugal AT antoniovazcarneiro excessmortalityestimationduringthecovid19pandemicpreliminarydatafromportugal |