Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia
Floods are defined by maximum water levels or flow of high-water waves. Here, we defined the deterministic method for the calculation of the probability of a high discharge event, named as the Probability Of Success (POS). The POS method previously developed for petroleum subsurface systems has been...
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MDPI AG
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/2/83 |
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| author | Vedran Sudar Tomislav Malvić Tatjana Vujnović Josip Ivšinović |
| author_facet | Vedran Sudar Tomislav Malvić Tatjana Vujnović Josip Ivšinović |
| author_sort | Vedran Sudar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Floods are defined by maximum water levels or flow of high-water waves. Here, we defined the deterministic method for the calculation of the probability of a high discharge event, named as the Probability Of Success (POS). The POS method previously developed for petroleum subsurface systems has been modified for the surface hydrological system with the purpose of flood prediction. The case study of this research is the small basin of Kašina Stream on Medvednica Mt. (NW Croatia). The data are obtained upstream from the hydrological station Gornja Kašina. The POS model is defined by four categories. Each geological category is described with accompanied events and probabilities. Floods are defined by four categories: total precipitation, total water flow, basement, and maximal water capacity in soil. The categories total precipitation and basement were divided into two sub-categories each: quantity and duration; porosity and soil depth. Data are collected for a hydrometeorological event, namely an intensive convective storm on 24–25 July 2020, when Zagreb was locally hit by heavy urban floods. The presented probability method yielded a probability of 1.76% that such an event could happen to the station. However, the flooding was not recorded. A comparison of the real event and the predicted probability supported the adequacy and applicability of the method, showing it has high reliability. The presented probability model could be easily applied, with small modifications, to the entire area of Northern Croatia for the prediction of small basin flooding events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:16:37Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea4c8b490226404ba6e4bf128b656b43 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:16:37Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea4c8b490226404ba6e4bf128b656b432023-11-21T20:26:09ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382021-05-01828310.3390/hydrology8020083Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., CroatiaVedran Sudar0Tomislav Malvić1Tatjana Vujnović2Josip Ivšinović3Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaFaculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, University of Zagreb, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaCroatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaField Development, INA-Industry of Oil Plc., Av. V. Holjevca 10, 10000 Zagreb, CroatiaFloods are defined by maximum water levels or flow of high-water waves. Here, we defined the deterministic method for the calculation of the probability of a high discharge event, named as the Probability Of Success (POS). The POS method previously developed for petroleum subsurface systems has been modified for the surface hydrological system with the purpose of flood prediction. The case study of this research is the small basin of Kašina Stream on Medvednica Mt. (NW Croatia). The data are obtained upstream from the hydrological station Gornja Kašina. The POS model is defined by four categories. Each geological category is described with accompanied events and probabilities. Floods are defined by four categories: total precipitation, total water flow, basement, and maximal water capacity in soil. The categories total precipitation and basement were divided into two sub-categories each: quantity and duration; porosity and soil depth. Data are collected for a hydrometeorological event, namely an intensive convective storm on 24–25 July 2020, when Zagreb was locally hit by heavy urban floods. The presented probability method yielded a probability of 1.76% that such an event could happen to the station. However, the flooding was not recorded. A comparison of the real event and the predicted probability supported the adequacy and applicability of the method, showing it has high reliability. The presented probability model could be easily applied, with small modifications, to the entire area of Northern Croatia for the prediction of small basin flooding events.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/2/83floodgeological categoriesprobabilityMedvednica Mt.Croatia |
| spellingShingle | Vedran Sudar Tomislav Malvić Tatjana Vujnović Josip Ivšinović Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia Hydrology flood geological categories probability Medvednica Mt. Croatia |
| title | Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia |
| title_full | Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia |
| title_short | Modeling of the Geological Probability Procedure for the Prediction of High Flows in Small Streams, Case Study of Medvednica Mt., Croatia |
| title_sort | modeling of the geological probability procedure for the prediction of high flows in small streams case study of medvednica mt croatia |
| topic | flood geological categories probability Medvednica Mt. Croatia |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/8/2/83 |
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