Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction
In this study, the wind and solar energy resources over China are projected during 2031–2060 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The bias correction method based on prob...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acddbb |
| _version_ | 1797798306560081920 |
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| author | Tongxin Li Pinhong Hui Jianping Tang Juan Fang |
| author_facet | Tongxin Li Pinhong Hui Jianping Tang Juan Fang |
| author_sort | Tongxin Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, the wind and solar energy resources over China are projected during 2031–2060 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The bias correction method based on probability distribution is applied to correct the simulated 100-m wind speed and surface down-welling shortwave radiation. The results show that the bias correction method can remarkably improve the skill of the individual simulations and the ensemble mean in capturing the features of wind speed and shortwave radiation from the aspects of spatial distribution, annual cycle, quantile distribution, probability distribution and cumulative probability distribution. The future projections from the bias-corrected ensemble show that both the wind and solar energy resources are abundant over northwestern China, with higher wind power density reaching up to 130 W m ^−2 in winter and richer surface down-welling shortwave radiation above 240 W m ^−2 in summer. Generally, the wind and solar energy resources will decrease in the future, by around 6% over the western regions and 4% over southeastern China in winter, respectively. The interannual variability of the two resources is projected to increase over most areas of northern China, indicating a decrease in the stability of resources, while tends to decrease over Southeastern China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:01:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea5c223b94c94602855ea9aaf54b4e01 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:01:35Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea5c223b94c94602855ea9aaf54b4e012023-06-21T12:14:38ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202023-01-015606100410.1088/2515-7620/acddbbFuture projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correctionTongxin Li0Pinhong Hui1Jianping Tang2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1098-2656Juan Fang3School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University , Nanjing, 210023, People’s Republic of China; Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Hebei Provincial Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang, 050021, People’s Republic of ChinaJiangsu Climate Center, Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing, 210019, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University , Nanjing, 210023, People’s Republic of ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University , Nanjing, 210023, People’s Republic of ChinaIn this study, the wind and solar energy resources over China are projected during 2031–2060 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The bias correction method based on probability distribution is applied to correct the simulated 100-m wind speed and surface down-welling shortwave radiation. The results show that the bias correction method can remarkably improve the skill of the individual simulations and the ensemble mean in capturing the features of wind speed and shortwave radiation from the aspects of spatial distribution, annual cycle, quantile distribution, probability distribution and cumulative probability distribution. The future projections from the bias-corrected ensemble show that both the wind and solar energy resources are abundant over northwestern China, with higher wind power density reaching up to 130 W m ^−2 in winter and richer surface down-welling shortwave radiation above 240 W m ^−2 in summer. Generally, the wind and solar energy resources will decrease in the future, by around 6% over the western regions and 4% over southeastern China in winter, respectively. The interannual variability of the two resources is projected to increase over most areas of northern China, indicating a decrease in the stability of resources, while tends to decrease over Southeastern China.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acddbbregional climate modelbias correction methodwind energy resourcesolar energy resourcefuture projections |
| spellingShingle | Tongxin Li Pinhong Hui Jianping Tang Juan Fang Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction Environmental Research Communications regional climate model bias correction method wind energy resource solar energy resource future projections |
| title | Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction |
| title_full | Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction |
| title_fullStr | Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction |
| title_short | Future projections of wind and solar energy resources over China from regional climate models based on bias correction |
| title_sort | future projections of wind and solar energy resources over china from regional climate models based on bias correction |
| topic | regional climate model bias correction method wind energy resource solar energy resource future projections |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acddbb |
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