Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa
We assess the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of renewable energy alternatives to Inga 3, a 4.8-GW hydropower project on the Congo River, to serve the energy needs of the host country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the main buyer, South Africa. To account for a key uncertainty in th...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf60 |
| _version_ | 1797748312397316096 |
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| author | R Deshmukh A Mileva G C Wu |
| author_facet | R Deshmukh A Mileva G C Wu |
| author_sort | R Deshmukh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We assess the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of renewable energy alternatives to Inga 3, a 4.8-GW hydropower project on the Congo River, to serve the energy needs of the host country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the main buyer, South Africa. To account for a key uncertainty in the literature regarding the additional economic impacts of managing variable wind and solar electricity, we built a spatially and temporally detailed power system investment model for South Africa. We find that a mix of wind, solar photovoltaics, and some natural gas is more cost-effective than Inga 3 to meet future demand except in scenarios with pessimistic assumptions about wind technology performance. If a low load growth forecast is used, including Inga 3 in the power mix results in higher system cost across all sensitivities. In our scenarios, the effect of Inga 3 deployment on South African power system cost ranges from an increase of ZAR 4300 (US$ 330) million annually to savings of ZAR 1600 (US$ 120) million annually by 2035. A cost overrun as low as 20% makes the Inga 3 scenarios more expensive in all sensitivity cases. Including time and cost overruns and losses in transmission from DRC to South Africa make Inga 3 an even less attractive investment. For DRC, through analysis of spatial datasets representing technical, physical, and environmental constraints, we find abundant renewable energy potential: 60 GW of solar photovoltaic and 0.6–2.3 GW of wind located close to transmission infrastructure have levelized costs less than US$ 0.07 per kWh, or the anticipated cost of Inga 3 to residential consumers. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea7a68dda2f848e4add269e8ce9bcefb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:07Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
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| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea7a68dda2f848e4add269e8ce9bcefb2023-08-09T14:33:05ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606402010.1088/1748-9326/aabf60Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern AfricaR Deshmukh0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5593-675XA Mileva1G C Wu2Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall , Berkeley, CA 94702, United States of America; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Blue Marble Analytics , San Francisco, CA, United States of AmericaEnergy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall , Berkeley, CA 94702, United States of AmericaWe assess the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of renewable energy alternatives to Inga 3, a 4.8-GW hydropower project on the Congo River, to serve the energy needs of the host country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and the main buyer, South Africa. To account for a key uncertainty in the literature regarding the additional economic impacts of managing variable wind and solar electricity, we built a spatially and temporally detailed power system investment model for South Africa. We find that a mix of wind, solar photovoltaics, and some natural gas is more cost-effective than Inga 3 to meet future demand except in scenarios with pessimistic assumptions about wind technology performance. If a low load growth forecast is used, including Inga 3 in the power mix results in higher system cost across all sensitivities. In our scenarios, the effect of Inga 3 deployment on South African power system cost ranges from an increase of ZAR 4300 (US$ 330) million annually to savings of ZAR 1600 (US$ 120) million annually by 2035. A cost overrun as low as 20% makes the Inga 3 scenarios more expensive in all sensitivity cases. Including time and cost overruns and losses in transmission from DRC to South Africa make Inga 3 an even less attractive investment. For DRC, through analysis of spatial datasets representing technical, physical, and environmental constraints, we find abundant renewable energy potential: 60 GW of solar photovoltaic and 0.6–2.3 GW of wind located close to transmission infrastructure have levelized costs less than US$ 0.07 per kWh, or the anticipated cost of Inga 3 to residential consumers.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf60hydrorenewable energydamIngaCongoSouth Africa |
| spellingShingle | R Deshmukh A Mileva G C Wu Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa Environmental Research Letters hydro renewable energy dam Inga Congo South Africa |
| title | Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa |
| title_full | Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa |
| title_fullStr | Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa |
| title_short | Renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower: a case study of Inga 3 for Southern Africa |
| title_sort | renewable energy alternatives to mega hydropower a case study of inga 3 for southern africa |
| topic | hydro renewable energy dam Inga Congo South Africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf60 |
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