Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia
Abstract Background Exposure to cold indoor temperature (< 18 degrees Celsius) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified by the WHO as a source of unhealthy housing. While warming homes has the potential to reduce CVD risk, the reduction in disease burden is not known. W...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-05-01
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| Series: | Environmental Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-022-00865-9 |
| _version_ | 1818240775592345600 |
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| author | Ankur Singh Anja Mizdrak Lyrian Daniel Tony Blakely Emma Baker Ludmila Fleitas Alfonzo Rebecca Bentley |
| author_facet | Ankur Singh Anja Mizdrak Lyrian Daniel Tony Blakely Emma Baker Ludmila Fleitas Alfonzo Rebecca Bentley |
| author_sort | Ankur Singh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Exposure to cold indoor temperature (< 18 degrees Celsius) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified by the WHO as a source of unhealthy housing. While warming homes has the potential to reduce CVD risk, the reduction in disease burden is not known. We simulated the population health gains from reduced CVD burden if the temperature in all Australian cold homes was permanently raised from their assumed average temperature of 16 degrees Celsius to 20 degrees Celsius. Methods The health effect of eradicating cold housing through reductions in CVD was simulated using proportional multistate lifetable model. The model sourced CVD burden and epidemiological data from Australian and Global Burden of Disease studies. The prevalence of cold housing in Australia was estimated from the Australian Housing Conditions Survey. The effect of cold indoor temperature on blood pressure (and in turn stroke and coronary heart disease) was estimated from published research. Results Eradication of exposure to indoor cold could achieve a gain of undiscounted one and a half weeks of additional health life per person alive in 2016 (base-year) in cold housing through CVD alone. This equates to 0.447 (uncertainty interval: 0.064, 1.34; 3% discount rate) HALYs per 1,000 persons over remainder of their lives through CVD reduction. Eight percent of the total health gains are achievable between 2016 and 2035. Although seemingly modest, the gains outperform currently recommended CVD interventions including persistent dietary advice for adults 5–9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.017 per 1000 people, UI: 0.01, 0.027) and persistent lifestyle program for adults 5–9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.024, UI: 0.01, 0.027). Conclusion Cardiovascular health gains alone achievable through eradication of cold housing are comparable with real-life lifestyle and dietary interventions. The potential health gains are even greater given cold housing eradication will also improve respiratory and mental health in addition to cardiovascular disease. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T13:18:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea7b691a454f4738a170f084ca21e88f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1476-069X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T13:18:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea7b691a454f4738a170f084ca21e88f2022-12-22T00:23:22ZengBMCEnvironmental Health1476-069X2022-05-0121111210.1186/s12940-022-00865-9Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in AustraliaAnkur Singh0Anja Mizdrak1Lyrian Daniel2Tony Blakely3Emma Baker4Ludmila Fleitas Alfonzo5Rebecca Bentley6Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of MelbourneDepartment of Public Health, University of OtagoAustralian Centre for Housing Research, The University of AdelaidePopulation Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of MelbourneAustralian Centre for Housing Research, The University of AdelaideCentre for Health Equity, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of MelbourneCentre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of MelbourneAbstract Background Exposure to cold indoor temperature (< 18 degrees Celsius) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and has been identified by the WHO as a source of unhealthy housing. While warming homes has the potential to reduce CVD risk, the reduction in disease burden is not known. We simulated the population health gains from reduced CVD burden if the temperature in all Australian cold homes was permanently raised from their assumed average temperature of 16 degrees Celsius to 20 degrees Celsius. Methods The health effect of eradicating cold housing through reductions in CVD was simulated using proportional multistate lifetable model. The model sourced CVD burden and epidemiological data from Australian and Global Burden of Disease studies. The prevalence of cold housing in Australia was estimated from the Australian Housing Conditions Survey. The effect of cold indoor temperature on blood pressure (and in turn stroke and coronary heart disease) was estimated from published research. Results Eradication of exposure to indoor cold could achieve a gain of undiscounted one and a half weeks of additional health life per person alive in 2016 (base-year) in cold housing through CVD alone. This equates to 0.447 (uncertainty interval: 0.064, 1.34; 3% discount rate) HALYs per 1,000 persons over remainder of their lives through CVD reduction. Eight percent of the total health gains are achievable between 2016 and 2035. Although seemingly modest, the gains outperform currently recommended CVD interventions including persistent dietary advice for adults 5–9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.017 per 1000 people, UI: 0.01, 0.027) and persistent lifestyle program for adults 5–9% 5 yr CVD risk (0.024, UI: 0.01, 0.027). Conclusion Cardiovascular health gains alone achievable through eradication of cold housing are comparable with real-life lifestyle and dietary interventions. The potential health gains are even greater given cold housing eradication will also improve respiratory and mental health in addition to cardiovascular disease.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-022-00865-9Cardiovascular diseaseCVDIndoor coldPolicy simulation |
| spellingShingle | Ankur Singh Anja Mizdrak Lyrian Daniel Tony Blakely Emma Baker Ludmila Fleitas Alfonzo Rebecca Bentley Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia Environmental Health Cardiovascular disease CVD Indoor cold Policy simulation |
| title | Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia |
| title_full | Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia |
| title_fullStr | Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia |
| title_short | Estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in Australia |
| title_sort | estimating cardiovascular health gains from eradicating indoor cold in australia |
| topic | Cardiovascular disease CVD Indoor cold Policy simulation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-022-00865-9 |
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