Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China
Abstract The winter extreme precipitation over South China (SC) experiences a large year‐to‐year variability, causing uncertainty in its prediction. Here, we find that the boreal winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Okhotsk Sea can serve as a precursor to the following winter's extreme pre...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1095 |
| _version_ | 1818017197828603904 |
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| author | Kai Ji Zhongshi Zhang Ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li Yurun Tian Yongqi Gao Jiayu Zheng |
| author_facet | Kai Ji Zhongshi Zhang Ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li Yurun Tian Yongqi Gao Jiayu Zheng |
| author_sort | Kai Ji |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The winter extreme precipitation over South China (SC) experiences a large year‐to‐year variability, causing uncertainty in its prediction. Here, we find that the boreal winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Okhotsk Sea can serve as a precursor to the following winter's extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) over SC, which has important implications for its prediction. Further analysis reveals that the Okhotsk Sea SIC anomalies help to reinforce North Pacific Oscillation‐like atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, which induces the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐like SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The ENSO may act as a “power amplifier” to boost the impact of the Okhotsk Sea winter SIC anomalies on the following winter EPF over SC via a positive atmosphere–ocean feedback process. Our findings suggest that the Okhotsk Sea SIC may act as a potential precursor for the winter EPF over SC leading by about 1 year, and further improve our understanding of extratropical‐tropical interactions and aid predictability of winter extreme precipitation over SC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:24:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea89a6aecdd148fea9682dc47586efa2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1530-261X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T07:24:00Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea89a6aecdd148fea9682dc47586efa22022-12-22T02:06:05ZengWileyAtmospheric Science Letters1530-261X2022-08-01238n/an/a10.1002/asl.1095Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South ChinaKai Ji0Zhongshi Zhang1Ruiqiang Ding2Jianping Li3Yurun Tian4Yongqi Gao5Jiayu Zheng6Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences Wuhan ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences Wuhan ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing ChinaLaboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology Qingdao ChinaNansen‐Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center/Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen NorwayState Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou ChinaAbstract The winter extreme precipitation over South China (SC) experiences a large year‐to‐year variability, causing uncertainty in its prediction. Here, we find that the boreal winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Okhotsk Sea can serve as a precursor to the following winter's extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) over SC, which has important implications for its prediction. Further analysis reveals that the Okhotsk Sea SIC anomalies help to reinforce North Pacific Oscillation‐like atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, which induces the development of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐like SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The ENSO may act as a “power amplifier” to boost the impact of the Okhotsk Sea winter SIC anomalies on the following winter EPF over SC via a positive atmosphere–ocean feedback process. Our findings suggest that the Okhotsk Sea SIC may act as a potential precursor for the winter EPF over SC leading by about 1 year, and further improve our understanding of extratropical‐tropical interactions and aid predictability of winter extreme precipitation over SC.https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1095air–sea–ice interactionsOkhotsk Seasea ice concentrationwinter extreme precipitation frequency |
| spellingShingle | Kai Ji Zhongshi Zhang Ruiqiang Ding Jianping Li Yurun Tian Yongqi Gao Jiayu Zheng Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China Atmospheric Science Letters air–sea–ice interactions Okhotsk Sea sea ice concentration winter extreme precipitation frequency |
| title | Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China |
| title_full | Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China |
| title_fullStr | Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China |
| title_short | Preceding winter Okhotsk Sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in South China |
| title_sort | preceding winter okhotsk sea ice as a precursor to the following winter extreme precipitation in south china |
| topic | air–sea–ice interactions Okhotsk Sea sea ice concentration winter extreme precipitation frequency |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1095 |
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