The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049
Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (C...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Emerald Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | EconomiA |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758020300291 |
| _version_ | 1818178904470323200 |
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| author | Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima Aline Souza Magalhães Edson Paulo Domingues Terciane Sabadini Carvalho |
| author_facet | Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima Aline Souza Magalhães Edson Paulo Domingues Terciane Sabadini Carvalho |
| author_sort | Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T20:55:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea936e6228304a95b2ba9bfa8c3df62d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1517-7580 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T20:55:23Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Emerald Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EconomiA |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea936e6228304a95b2ba9bfa8c3df62d2022-12-22T00:51:07ZengEmerald PublishingEconomiA1517-75802020-01-012117390The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure0Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima1Aline Souza Magalhães2Edson Paulo Domingues3Terciane Sabadini Carvalho4Cedeplar - Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional da UFMG, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas - 3° Andar, Avenida Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627 - Pampulha - Belo Horizonte - MG, CEP: 31270-901; Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 (31) 3409 7084.Cedeplar - Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional da UFMG, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas - 3° Andar, Avenida Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627 - Pampulha - Belo Horizonte - MG, CEP: 31270-901Cedeplar - Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional da UFMG, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas - 3° Andar, Avenida Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627 - Pampulha - Belo Horizonte - MG, CEP: 31270-901Cedeplar - Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional da UFMG, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS, Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas - 3° Andar, Avenida Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627 - Pampulha - Belo Horizonte - MG, CEP: 31270-901Universidade Federal do Paraná, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Econômico, Av. Prefeito Lothario Meissner, 632, Jardim Botanico - curitibaGlobal warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758020300291Climate ChangeFood ProductionLegal AmazonComputable General Equilibrium |
| spellingShingle | Tarik Marques do Prado Tanure Diego Nobuhiko Miyajima Aline Souza Magalhães Edson Paulo Domingues Terciane Sabadini Carvalho The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049 EconomiA Climate Change Food Production Legal Amazon Computable General Equilibrium |
| title | The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049 |
| title_full | The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049 |
| title_fullStr | The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049 |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049 |
| title_short | The Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production, Land Use and Economy of the Legal Amazon Region Between 2030 and 2049 |
| title_sort | impacts of climate change on agricultural production land use and economy of the legal amazon region between 2030 and 2049 |
| topic | Climate Change Food Production Legal Amazon Computable General Equilibrium |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758020300291 |
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