Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals?
Following the approval by the FDA of two COVID-19 vaccines, which are administered in two doses three to four weeks apart, we simulate the effects of various vaccine distribution policies on the cumulative number of infections and deaths in the United States in the presence of shocks to the supply o...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLOS Global Public Health |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000498 |
| _version_ | 1797699966661033984 |
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| author | Zied Ben Chaouch Andrew W Lo Chi Heem Wong |
| author_facet | Zied Ben Chaouch Andrew W Lo Chi Heem Wong |
| author_sort | Zied Ben Chaouch |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Following the approval by the FDA of two COVID-19 vaccines, which are administered in two doses three to four weeks apart, we simulate the effects of various vaccine distribution policies on the cumulative number of infections and deaths in the United States in the presence of shocks to the supply of vaccines. Our forecasts suggest that allocating more than 50% of available doses to individuals who have not received their first dose can significantly increase the number of lives saved and significantly reduce the number of COVID-19 infections. We find that a 50% allocation saves on average 33% more lives, and prevents on average 32% more infections relative to a policy that guarantees a second dose within the recommended time frame to all individuals who have already received their first dose. In fact, in the presence of supply shocks, we find that the former policy would save on average 8, 793 lives and prevents on average 607, 100 infections while the latter policy would save on average 6, 609 lives and prevents on average 460, 743 infections. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:15:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ea9a7b3c532e40ae8ce3de648054db8c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2767-3375 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T04:15:34Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLOS Global Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-ea9a7b3c532e40ae8ce3de648054db8c2023-09-03T10:39:15ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLOS Global Public Health2767-33752022-01-0127e000049810.1371/journal.pgph.0000498Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals?Zied Ben ChaouchAndrew W LoChi Heem WongFollowing the approval by the FDA of two COVID-19 vaccines, which are administered in two doses three to four weeks apart, we simulate the effects of various vaccine distribution policies on the cumulative number of infections and deaths in the United States in the presence of shocks to the supply of vaccines. Our forecasts suggest that allocating more than 50% of available doses to individuals who have not received their first dose can significantly increase the number of lives saved and significantly reduce the number of COVID-19 infections. We find that a 50% allocation saves on average 33% more lives, and prevents on average 32% more infections relative to a policy that guarantees a second dose within the recommended time frame to all individuals who have already received their first dose. In fact, in the presence of supply shocks, we find that the former policy would save on average 8, 793 lives and prevents on average 607, 100 infections while the latter policy would save on average 6, 609 lives and prevents on average 460, 743 infections.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000498 |
| spellingShingle | Zied Ben Chaouch Andrew W Lo Chi Heem Wong Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? PLOS Global Public Health |
| title | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_full | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_fullStr | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_short | Should we allocate more COVID-19 vaccine doses to non-vaccinated individuals? |
| title_sort | should we allocate more covid 19 vaccine doses to non vaccinated individuals |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000498 |
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