Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model
BackgroundThe prognosis of anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 positive dermatomyositis (anti-MDA5+DM) is poor and heterogeneous. Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease (RP-ILD) is these patients’ leading cause of death. We sought to develop prediction models for RP-ILD risk in an...
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| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Immunology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2024.1286973/full |
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| author | Lei Wang Chengyin Lv Hanxiao You Lingxiao Xu Fenghong Yuan Ju Li Min Wu Shiliang Zhou Zhanyun Da Jie Qian Hua Wei Wei Yan Lei Zhou Yan Wang Songlou Yin Dongmei Zhou Jian Wu Yan Lu Dinglei Su Zhichun Liu Lin Liu Longxin Ma Xiaoyan Xu Yinshan Zang Huijie Liu Tianli Ren Jin Liu Fang Wang Miaojia Zhang Wenfeng Tan |
| author_facet | Lei Wang Chengyin Lv Hanxiao You Lingxiao Xu Fenghong Yuan Ju Li Min Wu Shiliang Zhou Zhanyun Da Jie Qian Hua Wei Wei Yan Lei Zhou Yan Wang Songlou Yin Dongmei Zhou Jian Wu Yan Lu Dinglei Su Zhichun Liu Lin Liu Longxin Ma Xiaoyan Xu Yinshan Zang Huijie Liu Tianli Ren Jin Liu Fang Wang Miaojia Zhang Wenfeng Tan |
| author_sort | Lei Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundThe prognosis of anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 positive dermatomyositis (anti-MDA5+DM) is poor and heterogeneous. Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease (RP-ILD) is these patients’ leading cause of death. We sought to develop prediction models for RP-ILD risk in anti-MDA5+DM patients.MethodsPatients with anti-MDA5+DM were enrolled in two cohorts: 170 patients from the southern region of Jiangsu province (discovery cohort) and 85 patients from the northern region of Jiangsu province (validation cohort). Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors of RP-ILD. RP-ILD risk prediction models were developed and validated by testing every independent prognostic risk factor derived from the Cox model.ResultsThere are no significant differences in baseline clinical parameters and prognosis between discovery and validation cohorts. Among all 255 anti-MDA5+DM patients, with a median follow-up of 12 months, the incidence of RP-ILD was 36.86%. Using the discovery cohort, four variables were included in the final risk prediction model for RP-ILD: C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, anti-Ro52 antibody positivity, short disease duration, and male sex. A point scoring system was used to classify anti-MDA5+DM patients into moderate, high, and very high risk of RP-ILD. After one-year follow-up, the incidence of RP-ILD in the very high risk group was 71.3% and 85.71%, significantly higher than those in the high-risk group (35.19%, 41.69%) and moderate-risk group (9.54%, 6.67%) in both cohorts.ConclusionsThe CROSS model is an easy-to-use prediction classification system for RP-ILD risk in anti-MDA5+DM patients. It has great application prospect in disease management. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T08:51:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eaa622615f2d4e629b4a767f54b45ffb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-3224 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T08:51:48Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Immunology |
| spelling | doaj.art-eaa622615f2d4e629b4a767f54b45ffb2024-02-01T09:04:36ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Immunology1664-32242024-02-011510.3389/fimmu.2024.12869731286973Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS modelLei Wang0Chengyin Lv1Hanxiao You2Lingxiao Xu3Fenghong Yuan4Ju Li5Min Wu6Shiliang Zhou7Zhanyun Da8Jie Qian9Hua Wei10Wei Yan11Lei Zhou12Yan Wang13Songlou Yin14Dongmei Zhou15Jian Wu16Yan Lu17Dinglei Su18Zhichun Liu19Lin Liu20Longxin Ma21Xiaoyan Xu22Yinshan Zang23Huijie Liu24Tianli Ren25Jin Liu26Fang Wang27Miaojia Zhang28Wenfeng Tan29Division of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Wuxi People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Huai’an First People’s Hospital, Huai’an, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First People’s Hospital of Changzhou, Changzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First People’s Hospital of Changzhou, Changzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Nantong, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Northern Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Northern Jiangsu People’s Hospital, Yangzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Changzhou No.2 People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Changzhou No.2 People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China0Division of Rheumatology, Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China1Division of Rheumatology, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China2Division of Rheumatology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China3Division of Rheumatology, Xuzhou Central Hospital, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China4Division of Rheumatology, Yancheng No.1 People’s Hospital, Yancheng, Jiangsu, China5Division of Rheumatology, Zhongda Hospital Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China6Division of Rheumatology, The Affiliated Suqian First People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suqian, Jiangsu, China7Division of Rheumatology, The First People’s Hospital of Lianyungang, Lianyungang, Jiangsu, China8Division of Rheumatology, Wuxi No.2 People’s Hospital, Wuxi, Jiangsu, China9Research Institute of Clinical Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China0Division of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaDivision of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, ChinaBackgroundThe prognosis of anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 positive dermatomyositis (anti-MDA5+DM) is poor and heterogeneous. Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease (RP-ILD) is these patients’ leading cause of death. We sought to develop prediction models for RP-ILD risk in anti-MDA5+DM patients.MethodsPatients with anti-MDA5+DM were enrolled in two cohorts: 170 patients from the southern region of Jiangsu province (discovery cohort) and 85 patients from the northern region of Jiangsu province (validation cohort). Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors of RP-ILD. RP-ILD risk prediction models were developed and validated by testing every independent prognostic risk factor derived from the Cox model.ResultsThere are no significant differences in baseline clinical parameters and prognosis between discovery and validation cohorts. Among all 255 anti-MDA5+DM patients, with a median follow-up of 12 months, the incidence of RP-ILD was 36.86%. Using the discovery cohort, four variables were included in the final risk prediction model for RP-ILD: C-reactive protein (CRP) levels, anti-Ro52 antibody positivity, short disease duration, and male sex. A point scoring system was used to classify anti-MDA5+DM patients into moderate, high, and very high risk of RP-ILD. After one-year follow-up, the incidence of RP-ILD in the very high risk group was 71.3% and 85.71%, significantly higher than those in the high-risk group (35.19%, 41.69%) and moderate-risk group (9.54%, 6.67%) in both cohorts.ConclusionsThe CROSS model is an easy-to-use prediction classification system for RP-ILD risk in anti-MDA5+DM patients. It has great application prospect in disease management.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2024.1286973/fullanti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5dermatomyositisrapidly progressive interstitial lung diseasepredict modelseasy-to-use |
| spellingShingle | Lei Wang Chengyin Lv Hanxiao You Lingxiao Xu Fenghong Yuan Ju Li Min Wu Shiliang Zhou Zhanyun Da Jie Qian Hua Wei Wei Yan Lei Zhou Yan Wang Songlou Yin Dongmei Zhou Jian Wu Yan Lu Dinglei Su Zhichun Liu Lin Liu Longxin Ma Xiaoyan Xu Yinshan Zang Huijie Liu Tianli Ren Jin Liu Fang Wang Miaojia Zhang Wenfeng Tan Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model Frontiers in Immunology anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 dermatomyositis rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease predict models easy-to-use |
| title | Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model |
| title_full | Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model |
| title_fullStr | Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model |
| title_short | Rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti-MDA5 positive dermatomyositis: the CROSS model |
| title_sort | rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease risk prediction in anti mda5 positive dermatomyositis the cross model |
| topic | anti-melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 dermatomyositis rapidly progressive interstitial lung disease predict models easy-to-use |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2024.1286973/full |
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