Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature
Abstract Background A recurrent feature of infectious diseases is the observation that different individuals show different levels of secondary transmission. This inter-individual variation in transmission potential is often quantified by the dispersion parameter k. Low values of k indicate a high d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-05-01
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| Series: | BMC Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15915-1 |
| _version_ | 1797811306439376896 |
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| author | Oliver Wegehaupt Akira Endo Anna Vassall |
| author_facet | Oliver Wegehaupt Akira Endo Anna Vassall |
| author_sort | Oliver Wegehaupt |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background A recurrent feature of infectious diseases is the observation that different individuals show different levels of secondary transmission. This inter-individual variation in transmission potential is often quantified by the dispersion parameter k. Low values of k indicate a high degree of variability and a greater probability of superspreading events. Understanding k for COVID-19 across contexts can assist policy makers prepare for future pandemics. Methods A literature search following a systematic approach was carried out in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv and arXiv to identify publications containing epidemiological findings on superspreading in COVID-19. Study characteristics, epidemiological data, including estimates for k and R0, and public health recommendations were extracted from relevant records. Results The literature search yielded 28 peer-reviewed studies. The mean k estimates ranged from 0.04 to 2.97. Among the 28 studies, 93% reported mean k estimates lower than one, which is considered as marked heterogeneity in inter-individual transmission potential. Recommended control measures were specifically aimed at preventing superspreading events. The combination of forward and backward contact tracing, timely confirmation of cases, rapid case isolation, vaccination and preventive measures were suggested as important components to suppress superspreading. Conclusions Superspreading events were a major feature in the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2. On the one hand, this made outbreaks potentially more explosive but on the other hand also more responsive to public health interventions. Going forward, understanding k is critical for tailoring public health measures to high-risk groups and settings where superspreading events occur. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:20:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eaefb2741b2744648b5593258f5de11f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T07:20:42Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-eaefb2741b2744648b5593258f5de11f2023-06-04T11:40:57ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582023-05-0123112210.1186/s12889-023-15915-1Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literatureOliver Wegehaupt0Akira Endo1Anna Vassall2Institute for Immunodeficiency, Center for Chronic Immunodeficiency (CCI), Medical Center, Faculty of Medicine, University of FreiburgDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineAbstract Background A recurrent feature of infectious diseases is the observation that different individuals show different levels of secondary transmission. This inter-individual variation in transmission potential is often quantified by the dispersion parameter k. Low values of k indicate a high degree of variability and a greater probability of superspreading events. Understanding k for COVID-19 across contexts can assist policy makers prepare for future pandemics. Methods A literature search following a systematic approach was carried out in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, medRxiv, bioRxiv and arXiv to identify publications containing epidemiological findings on superspreading in COVID-19. Study characteristics, epidemiological data, including estimates for k and R0, and public health recommendations were extracted from relevant records. Results The literature search yielded 28 peer-reviewed studies. The mean k estimates ranged from 0.04 to 2.97. Among the 28 studies, 93% reported mean k estimates lower than one, which is considered as marked heterogeneity in inter-individual transmission potential. Recommended control measures were specifically aimed at preventing superspreading events. The combination of forward and backward contact tracing, timely confirmation of cases, rapid case isolation, vaccination and preventive measures were suggested as important components to suppress superspreading. Conclusions Superspreading events were a major feature in the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2. On the one hand, this made outbreaks potentially more explosive but on the other hand also more responsive to public health interventions. Going forward, understanding k is critical for tailoring public health measures to high-risk groups and settings where superspreading events occur.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15915-1SARS-CoV-2COVID-19SuperspreadingOverdispersionSecondary transmissionTransmission pattern |
| spellingShingle | Oliver Wegehaupt Akira Endo Anna Vassall Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature BMC Public Health SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Superspreading Overdispersion Secondary transmission Transmission pattern |
| title | Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature |
| title_full | Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature |
| title_fullStr | Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature |
| title_short | Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature |
| title_sort | superspreading overdispersion and their implications in the sars cov 2 covid 19 pandemic a systematic review and meta analysis of the literature |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 Superspreading Overdispersion Secondary transmission Transmission pattern |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15915-1 |
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