Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas
The applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory, in particular the self-similar fractal models, logistic models according to Prigogine, logistic models according to Schuster, and heuristic crossing models for one-year-ahead forecasting of the sales of electric energy in the rural are...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2006-03-01
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| Series: | Research in Agricultural Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://rae.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/rae-200601-0004_applicability-of-models-based-on-deterministic-chaos-theory-for-forecasting-of-electricity-sales-in-rural-areas.php |
| _version_ | 1828007179299323904 |
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| author | M. Trojanowska |
| author_facet | M. Trojanowska |
| author_sort | M. Trojanowska |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory, in particular the self-similar fractal models, logistic models according to Prigogine, logistic models according to Schuster, and heuristic crossing models for one-year-ahead forecasting of the sales of electric energy in the rural areas, is verified in the paper. The model quality assessment was carried out based on the errors analysis of the 10-year ex post forecasts of the electric energy sale to rural consumers by three selected distribution companies. As the electric energy consumption were disturbed by economic crises, the forecasts were developed using not only annual sales value but also using their 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year totals. The best forecast were obtained when the electric energy sales were predicted using the Schuster and heuristic crossing models, made on the basis of four- and five-year totals of annual sales values. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:07:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eb1078bde0324ac08f8b63522d5dc24e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1212-9151 1805-9376 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:07:59Z |
| publishDate | 2006-03-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Research in Agricultural Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-eb1078bde0324ac08f8b63522d5dc24e2023-02-23T03:47:15ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesResearch in Agricultural Engineering1212-91511805-93762006-03-01521252910.17221/4876-RAErae-200601-0004Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areasM. Trojanowska0Department of Energetics of Agriculture, Agricultural University of Cracow, Cracow, PolandThe applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory, in particular the self-similar fractal models, logistic models according to Prigogine, logistic models according to Schuster, and heuristic crossing models for one-year-ahead forecasting of the sales of electric energy in the rural areas, is verified in the paper. The model quality assessment was carried out based on the errors analysis of the 10-year ex post forecasts of the electric energy sale to rural consumers by three selected distribution companies. As the electric energy consumption were disturbed by economic crises, the forecasts were developed using not only annual sales value but also using their 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year totals. The best forecast were obtained when the electric energy sales were predicted using the Schuster and heuristic crossing models, made on the basis of four- and five-year totals of annual sales values.https://rae.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/rae-200601-0004_applicability-of-models-based-on-deterministic-chaos-theory-for-forecasting-of-electricity-sales-in-rural-areas.phpelectric energyforecastdeterministic chaos |
| spellingShingle | M. Trojanowska Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas Research in Agricultural Engineering electric energy forecast deterministic chaos |
| title | Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas |
| title_full | Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas |
| title_fullStr | Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas |
| title_short | Applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas |
| title_sort | applicability of models based on deterministic chaos theory for forecasting of electricity sales in rural areas |
| topic | electric energy forecast deterministic chaos |
| url | https://rae.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/rae-200601-0004_applicability-of-models-based-on-deterministic-chaos-theory-for-forecasting-of-electricity-sales-in-rural-areas.php |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mtrojanowska applicabilityofmodelsbasedondeterministicchaostheoryforforecastingofelectricitysalesinruralareas |