Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China
Objectives: We aimed to estimate the current and future lifetime risks (LTR) of herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), as well as their respective number of annual incident cases in Beijing, China, if individuals were not vaccinated against HZ. Study design: Mathematical model built in...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Public Health in Practice |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666535223000022 |
| _version_ | 1797806406642958336 |
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| author | Christa Lee Nikolaos Giannelos Desmond Curran Hengjin Dong Haiwen Tang Ning Jiang Chiyu Ye Yanfei Yuan Cheryl Ng |
| author_facet | Christa Lee Nikolaos Giannelos Desmond Curran Hengjin Dong Haiwen Tang Ning Jiang Chiyu Ye Yanfei Yuan Cheryl Ng |
| author_sort | Christa Lee |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objectives: We aimed to estimate the current and future lifetime risks (LTR) of herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), as well as their respective number of annual incident cases in Beijing, China, if individuals were not vaccinated against HZ. Study design: Mathematical model built in Microsoft Excel, de novo. Methods: A hypothetical cohort of 1,000 people was simulated from age 0–100 or until death to generate LTRs of HZ/PHN in Beijing, China. LTR was defined as the risk of developing HZ/PHN at least once in the person’s lifetime. The current number of annual incident HZ/PHN cases were also calculated by multiplying up-to-date population data and the annual age-specific incidence of HZ/PHN. For both LTR and annual incident cases, current estimates were projected into the year 2035 to investigate the impact of an aging population. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) were conducted to validate the model outcomes. Results: In Beijing, the current and future LTRs of HZ (PHN) were 32.4% (2.8%) and 34.8% (3.3%), respectively. The current and future annual incident cases of HZ (PHN) of individuals aged ≥50 years were 68,394 (7,801) cases among 7.04 million individuals and 88,676 (9,649) cases among 9.08 million individuals, respectively. The scenario analyses demonstrated that modelled results were likely to underestimate the LTR of HZ. Results were robust under the DSA. Conclusions: Given an aging population, HZ poses a significant, growing burden on individuals, the society, and healthcare system of China, highlighting the need for preventative measures such as vaccination. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:06:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eb179e0c8a7d4190ad8d66d331ae5ded |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-5352 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:06:49Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Public Health in Practice |
| spelling | doaj.art-eb179e0c8a7d4190ad8d66d331ae5ded2023-06-12T04:09:33ZengElsevierPublic Health in Practice2666-53522023-06-015100356Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, ChinaChrista Lee0Nikolaos Giannelos1Desmond Curran2Hengjin Dong3Haiwen Tang4Ning Jiang5Chiyu Ye6Yanfei Yuan7Cheryl Ng8GSK, Singapore, SingaporeGSK, Wavre, BelgiumGSK, Wavre, BelgiumCenter for Health Policy Studies, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaGSK, Beijing, ChinaGSK, Beijing, ChinaGSK, Beijing, ChinaGSK, Beijing, ChinaGSK, Singapore, Singapore; Corresponding author. GSK, Asia House, 23 Rochester Park, 139234, Singapore.Objectives: We aimed to estimate the current and future lifetime risks (LTR) of herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), as well as their respective number of annual incident cases in Beijing, China, if individuals were not vaccinated against HZ. Study design: Mathematical model built in Microsoft Excel, de novo. Methods: A hypothetical cohort of 1,000 people was simulated from age 0–100 or until death to generate LTRs of HZ/PHN in Beijing, China. LTR was defined as the risk of developing HZ/PHN at least once in the person’s lifetime. The current number of annual incident HZ/PHN cases were also calculated by multiplying up-to-date population data and the annual age-specific incidence of HZ/PHN. For both LTR and annual incident cases, current estimates were projected into the year 2035 to investigate the impact of an aging population. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) were conducted to validate the model outcomes. Results: In Beijing, the current and future LTRs of HZ (PHN) were 32.4% (2.8%) and 34.8% (3.3%), respectively. The current and future annual incident cases of HZ (PHN) of individuals aged ≥50 years were 68,394 (7,801) cases among 7.04 million individuals and 88,676 (9,649) cases among 9.08 million individuals, respectively. The scenario analyses demonstrated that modelled results were likely to underestimate the LTR of HZ. Results were robust under the DSA. Conclusions: Given an aging population, HZ poses a significant, growing burden on individuals, the society, and healthcare system of China, highlighting the need for preventative measures such as vaccination.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666535223000022Aging populationChinaHerpes zosterLifetime riskPostherpetic neuralgiaVaccination |
| spellingShingle | Christa Lee Nikolaos Giannelos Desmond Curran Hengjin Dong Haiwen Tang Ning Jiang Chiyu Ye Yanfei Yuan Cheryl Ng Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China Public Health in Practice Aging population China Herpes zoster Lifetime risk Postherpetic neuralgia Vaccination |
| title | Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China |
| title_full | Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China |
| title_fullStr | Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China |
| title_short | Lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of Beijing, China |
| title_sort | lifetime risk of herpes zoster in the population of beijing china |
| topic | Aging population China Herpes zoster Lifetime risk Postherpetic neuralgia Vaccination |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666535223000022 |
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