Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra
The scientific literature has taken up the theme of secular stagnation of economic growth again in the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, many decades after Alvin Hansen's original contribution. The resurgence of this phenomenon is also accompanied by profound changes at other...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Janus.net |
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| Online Access: | https://repositorio.ual.pt/bitstream/11144/5665/2/15-PT-vol13-n2-art11.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811177484876513280 |
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| author | Henrique Morais |
| author_facet | Henrique Morais |
| author_sort | Henrique Morais |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The scientific literature has taken up the theme of secular stagnation of economic growth
again in the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, many decades after Alvin
Hansen's original contribution.
The resurgence of this phenomenon is also accompanied by profound changes at other levels:
the world has become more global, digitization is advancing and, in International Relations,
the instruments of power change and soft power joins the military and economy components
as the fundamental vertices of power.
Meanwhile, a violent pandemic emerged, causing unimaginable loss of life, significant changes
in habits and a deep worldwide economic recession. Soon after, war invaded Europe,
destabilizing the Old Continent and having very negative repercussions on distribution
channels and the world economy.
The pandemic and the war reinforce a very negative expectation about the evolution of the
world economy, in a dual scenario in which not everyone reacts in the same way.
Our analysis focuses mainly on the United States and China, currently the two major economic
powers. In fact, the latter will most likely become the world's largest economy in the short
term, although the US, aware of the relative loss of its supremacy, continues to resist in
different ways in which this top position can be played.
The aim of this article is to assess to what extent all these changes in the paradigms of
geoeconomics, with the rise of China to the top of the world pyramid, accompanied by a dual
phenomenon, that is, an apparent long stagnation of world economic growth in the advanced
economies and the maintenance of solid economic growth in emerging markets, may change
the balances of world power.
And this eventual change, it seems to us, will probably involve a strengthening of China's
position and the loss of the still dominant power, the USA. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:02:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eb35b27ed4134e58b65e20684321df6f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1647-7251 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:02:35Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Janus.net |
| spelling | doaj.art-eb35b27ed4134e58b65e20684321df6f2022-12-22T04:41:38ZengUniversidade Autónoma de LisboaJanus.net1647-72512022-11-01132268284https://doi.org/10.26619/1647-7251.13.2.11Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerraHenrique Morais0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8264-0455Licenciado em Economia pela Universidade Técnica de Lisboa / Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão (ISEG). Mestre em Economia Internacional pelo ISEG. Doutor em Relações Internacionais: Geopolítica e Geoeconomia pela Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa. Quadro do Banco de Portugal (Portugal), onde desempenha funções de Coordenador da Área de Inovação e Suporte do Departamento de Mercados. Fui Consultor dos Correios de Portugal (CTT), Presidente da Comissão Executiva e Administrador da Invesfer S.A., uma empresa do Grupo REFER, e ainda Administrador e Diretor Executivo da CP Carga. Professor na Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa (nos Departamentos de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais e Relações Internacionais) e no MBA em Corporate Finance da Universidade do Algarve. É ainda membro do Obsservatório de Relações Exteriores, OBSERVARE da UAL, onde se tem envolvido em diversos projetos de investigação, assim como participa regularmente nas edições do Janus – Anuário de Relçações Exteriores.The scientific literature has taken up the theme of secular stagnation of economic growth again in the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, many decades after Alvin Hansen's original contribution. The resurgence of this phenomenon is also accompanied by profound changes at other levels: the world has become more global, digitization is advancing and, in International Relations, the instruments of power change and soft power joins the military and economy components as the fundamental vertices of power. Meanwhile, a violent pandemic emerged, causing unimaginable loss of life, significant changes in habits and a deep worldwide economic recession. Soon after, war invaded Europe, destabilizing the Old Continent and having very negative repercussions on distribution channels and the world economy. The pandemic and the war reinforce a very negative expectation about the evolution of the world economy, in a dual scenario in which not everyone reacts in the same way. Our analysis focuses mainly on the United States and China, currently the two major economic powers. In fact, the latter will most likely become the world's largest economy in the short term, although the US, aware of the relative loss of its supremacy, continues to resist in different ways in which this top position can be played. The aim of this article is to assess to what extent all these changes in the paradigms of geoeconomics, with the rise of China to the top of the world pyramid, accompanied by a dual phenomenon, that is, an apparent long stagnation of world economic growth in the advanced economies and the maintenance of solid economic growth in emerging markets, may change the balances of world power. And this eventual change, it seems to us, will probably involve a strengthening of China's position and the loss of the still dominant power, the USA.https://repositorio.ual.pt/bitstream/11144/5665/2/15-PT-vol13-n2-art11.pdfsecular stagnationglobal powerhard powersoft powerpandemic |
| spellingShingle | Henrique Morais Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra Janus.net secular stagnation global power hard power soft power pandemic |
| title | Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra |
| title_full | Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra |
| title_fullStr | Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra |
| title_short | Economia e equlíbrios do poder mundial no pós-pandemia/guerra |
| title_sort | economia e equlibrios do poder mundial no pos pandemia guerra |
| topic | secular stagnation global power hard power soft power pandemic |
| url | https://repositorio.ual.pt/bitstream/11144/5665/2/15-PT-vol13-n2-art11.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT henriquemorais economiaeequlibriosdopodermundialnopospandemiaguerra |