Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition

Abstract Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge...

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Main Authors: Hanwen Wang, Theinmozhi Arulraj, Holly Kimko, Aleksander S. Popel
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2023-06-01
Series:npj Precision Oncology
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41698-023-00405-9
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author Hanwen Wang
Theinmozhi Arulraj
Holly Kimko
Aleksander S. Popel
author_facet Hanwen Wang
Theinmozhi Arulraj
Holly Kimko
Aleksander S. Popel
author_sort Hanwen Wang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge of biological systems to investigate dynamics in a whole system during disease progression and drug treatment. In the present analysis, we parameterized our previously published QSP model of the cancer-immunity cycle to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and generated a virtual patient cohort to predict clinical response to PD-L1 inhibition in NSCLC. The virtual patient generation was guided by immunogenomic data from iAtlas portal and population pharmacokinetic data of durvalumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor. With virtual patients generated following the immunogenomic data distribution, our model predicted a response rate of 18.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 13.3-24.2%) and identified CD8/Treg ratio as a potential predictive biomarker in addition to PD-L1 expression and tumor mutational burden. We demonstrated that omics data served as a reliable resource for virtual patient generation techniques in immuno-oncology using QSP models.
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spelling doaj.art-eb7a0620f4954e65a3aadd7ab5c5b2e42023-12-03T12:28:46ZengNature Portfolionpj Precision Oncology2397-768X2023-06-017111410.1038/s41698-023-00405-9Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibitionHanwen Wang0Theinmozhi Arulraj1Holly Kimko2Aleksander S. Popel3Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineClinical Pharmacology & Quantitative Pharmacology, AstraZenecaDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University School of MedicineAbstract Generating realistic virtual patients from a limited amount of patient data is one of the major challenges for quantitative systems pharmacology modeling in immuno-oncology. Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is a mathematical modeling methodology that integrates mechanistic knowledge of biological systems to investigate dynamics in a whole system during disease progression and drug treatment. In the present analysis, we parameterized our previously published QSP model of the cancer-immunity cycle to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and generated a virtual patient cohort to predict clinical response to PD-L1 inhibition in NSCLC. The virtual patient generation was guided by immunogenomic data from iAtlas portal and population pharmacokinetic data of durvalumab, a PD-L1 inhibitor. With virtual patients generated following the immunogenomic data distribution, our model predicted a response rate of 18.6% (95% bootstrap confidence interval: 13.3-24.2%) and identified CD8/Treg ratio as a potential predictive biomarker in addition to PD-L1 expression and tumor mutational burden. We demonstrated that omics data served as a reliable resource for virtual patient generation techniques in immuno-oncology using QSP models.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41698-023-00405-9
spellingShingle Hanwen Wang
Theinmozhi Arulraj
Holly Kimko
Aleksander S. Popel
Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition
npj Precision Oncology
title Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition
title_full Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition
title_fullStr Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition
title_full_unstemmed Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition
title_short Generating immunogenomic data-guided virtual patients using a QSP model to predict response of advanced NSCLC to PD-L1 inhibition
title_sort generating immunogenomic data guided virtual patients using a qsp model to predict response of advanced nsclc to pd l1 inhibition
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41698-023-00405-9
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