Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates
The information on ecological niches of the Marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea (A. Rich.) Horchst. subspecies are needed for sustainable management of this tree, considering its nutritional, economic, and ecological benefits. However, despite Tanzania being regarded as a global genetic center of divers...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Finnish Society of Forest Science
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Silva Fennica |
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| Online Access: | https://www.silvafennica.fi/article/23009 |
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| author | Abubakari H. Munna Nyambilila A. Amuri Proches Hieronimo Dino A. Woiso |
| author_facet | Abubakari H. Munna Nyambilila A. Amuri Proches Hieronimo Dino A. Woiso |
| author_sort | Abubakari H. Munna |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The information on ecological niches of the Marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea (A. Rich.) Horchst. subspecies are needed for sustainable management of this tree, considering its nutritional, economic, and ecological benefits. However, despite Tanzania being regarded as a global genetic center of diversity of S. birrea, information on the subspecies ecological niches is lacking. We aimed to model ecological niches of S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates. Ecological niches under the current climate were modelled by using ecological niche models in MaxEnt using climatic, edaphic, and topographical variables, and subspecies occurrence data. The Hadley Climate Center and National Center for Atmospheric Research's Earth System Models were used to predict ecological niches under the medium and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080. Area under the curves (AUCs) were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The results show that the models were robust, with AUCs of 0.85–0.95. Annual and seasonal precipitation, elevation, and soil cation exchange capacity are the key environmental factors that define the ecological niches of the S. birrea subspecies. Ecological niches of subsp. caffra, multifoliata, and birrea are currently found in 30, 22, and 21 regions, and occupy 184 814 km2, 139 918 km2, and 28 446 km2 of Tanzania's land area respectively, which will contract by 0.4–44% due to climate change. Currently, 31–51% of ecological niches are under Tanzania’s protected areas network. The findings are important in guiding the development of conservation and domestication strategies for the S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:58:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-eb8e02b546e242baa05b10d0c6984ce1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2242-4075 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T22:58:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Finnish Society of Forest Science |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Silva Fennica |
| spelling | doaj.art-eb8e02b546e242baa05b10d0c6984ce12024-02-22T19:21:45ZengFinnish Society of Forest ScienceSilva Fennica2242-40752023-12-0157310.14214/sf.23009Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climatesAbubakari H. Munna0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8858-0457Nyambilila A. Amuri1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3092-3458Proches Hieronimo2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4450-5073Dino A. Woiso3Department of Soil and Geological Sciences, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3008, Morogoro, TanzaniaDepartment of Soil and Geological Sciences, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3008, Morogoro, TanzaniaDepartment of Agricultural Engineering, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3003 Morogoro, TanzaniaDepartment of Biosciences, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3038 Morogoro, TanzaniaThe information on ecological niches of the Marula tree, Sclerocarya birrea (A. Rich.) Horchst. subspecies are needed for sustainable management of this tree, considering its nutritional, economic, and ecological benefits. However, despite Tanzania being regarded as a global genetic center of diversity of S. birrea, information on the subspecies ecological niches is lacking. We aimed to model ecological niches of S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates. Ecological niches under the current climate were modelled by using ecological niche models in MaxEnt using climatic, edaphic, and topographical variables, and subspecies occurrence data. The Hadley Climate Center and National Center for Atmospheric Research's Earth System Models were used to predict ecological niches under the medium and high greenhouse gases emission scenarios for the years 2050 and 2080. Area under the curves (AUCs) were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The results show that the models were robust, with AUCs of 0.85–0.95. Annual and seasonal precipitation, elevation, and soil cation exchange capacity are the key environmental factors that define the ecological niches of the S. birrea subspecies. Ecological niches of subsp. caffra, multifoliata, and birrea are currently found in 30, 22, and 21 regions, and occupy 184 814 km2, 139 918 km2, and 28 446 km2 of Tanzania's land area respectively, which will contract by 0.4–44% due to climate change. Currently, 31–51% of ecological niches are under Tanzania’s protected areas network. The findings are important in guiding the development of conservation and domestication strategies for the S. birrea subspecies in Tanzania.https://www.silvafennica.fi/article/23009climate change; conservation; gis; agroforestry; domestication; maxent; protected areas network |
| spellingShingle | Abubakari H. Munna Nyambilila A. Amuri Proches Hieronimo Dino A. Woiso Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates Silva Fennica climate change; conservation; gis; agroforestry; domestication; maxent; protected areas network |
| title | Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates |
| title_full | Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates |
| title_fullStr | Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates |
| title_short | Modelling ecological niches of Sclerocarya birrea subspecies in Tanzania under the current and future climates |
| title_sort | modelling ecological niches of sclerocarya birrea subspecies in tanzania under the current and future climates |
| topic | climate change; conservation; gis; agroforestry; domestication; maxent; protected areas network |
| url | https://www.silvafennica.fi/article/23009 |
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